Consumers are feeling dour, but they're still expected to spend record sums this holiday season — with higher prices pulling much of the sled.

💰 Stunning stat: The National Retail Federation and Bain & Co. recently projected separately that Americans will spend more than $1 trillion during the holiday shopping season for the first time.

📦 The latest: UPS raised its earnings outlook today, citing the holidays as a significant factor driving its confidence, despite rock-bottom consumer sentiment.

• Online retail sales — which power UPS' business this time of year — are expected to rise by 9% based on an average of industry forecasts, according to UPS.
• "U.S. consumers remain resilient and the outlook for holiday demand is strong," UPS CEO Carol Tomé said on an earnings call.

💸 Yes, but: Higher spending doesn't necessarily mean consumers are buying more. Inflation is expected to be a major driver of holiday sales growth, according to Bain.

• The firm projects that higher prices will account for all of the sales growth at sporting goods, hobby, book and music stores.
• Inflation is also expected to prop up sales at department stores and furniture and home furnishings retailers, even as they sell fewer items.

UPS expects average daily package volume to jump 25% from the third to the fourth quarter, roughly matching last year's holiday surge, based on forecasts from its largest customers, Tomé said.

• Year over year, however, UPS expects volume to fall 1.3% in Q4 — largely because the company cut its Amazon shipment deal to boost its profitability.

⛽️ What we're watching: Elevated gas prices could still turn holiday shoppers into Scrooge.

• The average price of gas was $4.27 per gallon today, up 40% from a year ago, according to AAA.

The bottom line: Consumers aren't feeling particularly merry, but it's not stopping them from gift-giving.

Go deeper

General Motors is moving its stock listing from the NYSE to Nasdaq, home to many of the world's biggest technology companies, Axios' Joann Muller writes.

• Why it matters: The switch reflects GM's growing emphasis on AI, autonomous driving and software-defined vehicles — with potential benefits for shareholders to boot.

🤖 What they're saying: "GM's customer-focused, technology-driven strategy is creating value for our stockholders, making Nasdaq a natural home for our listing as we grow," CFO Paul Jacobson said in a statement.

Follow the money: The move also makes GM eligible for inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 index, which would attract new investment from funds that track the benchmark.

💭 Joann's thought bubble: GM has been trying to recast its image as a technology company since 2016, when CEO Mary Barra and the Chevrolet Bolt EV appeared on the cover of Wired magazine for beating "Elon Musk in the race to build a true EV for the masses."

• Since then, GM's been arguing that it deserves a tech-company valuation — but Wall Street hasn't bought the pitch, continuing to treat it as a cyclical industrial company.

The bottom line: GM will begin trading on Nasdaq on Nov. 17, retaining its familiar "GM" ticker.

• 🥸 Changing exchanges won't change GM's underlying business. But it could help change how investors perceive it.

🏷️ Meta's upsized $25 billion share sale was reportedly 5x oversubscribed, with more than half of the shares in the common stock offering allocated to long-only and existing investors. Shares closed down 1.6%. (Bloomberg)

🥤 Coca-Cola hiked its earnings outlook for the third straight quarter despite what CEO Henrique Braun called an "uneven environment." (CNBC)

🚙 Mercedes-Benz slashed its earnings outlook as the company faces plunging sales in China, where the German auto industry is struggling. (WSJ)

The Labubu craze has faded.

• The maker, Pop Mart International, said in a preliminary sales report today that it expects its Q3 revenue to decline by 45%–50%, compared with a year earlier.

Flashback: The mischievous, spiky-eared, snaggle-toothed Labubu plush dolls were the hot toy of 2025, driving an enormous revenue increase for Pop Mart.

• A year ago, the company's revenue was soaring by 250%.

Zoom in: The decline in interest appears to be particularly sharp in the Americas, where Pop Mart's sales are expected to fall by 70%–75% in the third quarter.

💭 Nathan's thought bubble: Sounds like the Beanie Babies boom-bust all over again.