With millions of dollars sitting in AI super PAC accounts, the industry's influence in the midterms is on track to expand.

Why it matters: AI groups have already become major players in congressional races, but the latest Federal Election Commission filings show that the biggest spending may lie ahead.

• Candidates are not definitively winning or losing on the AI issue alone so far. But with millions of dollars still available, AI groups are positioned to push their priorities hard through November.

By the numbers: Leading the Future — a pro-AI industry super PAC backed by tech execs and investors pushing rapid AI development and lighter regulation — closed out Q2 with $31 million after transferring $20 million to affiliated groups.

• It disbursed $10 million each to Think Big PAC and American Mission PAC, according to its latest FEC filing.
• "Our resources will allow us to continue building a deep bench of pro-innovation champions," Leading the Future spokesperson Jesse Hunt told Axios in a statement.

The other side: Public First Action, a bipartisan 501(c)(4) nonprofit that advocates for AI safety and received $20 million from Anthropic earlier this year, is tied to three super PACs.

The bipartisan Public First PAC reported about $494,000 cash on hand at the end of Q2.

• The super PAC raised about $3.4 million during the quarter — much of it from Anthropic executives and employees — and transferred $3.3 million to its affiliate, Jobs and Democracy PAC.
• Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei donated $1 million to Public First.
• Anthropic, Google and OpenAI employees collectively contributed more than $2 million to the super PAC.

Jobs and Democracy PAC, which backs Democrats, ended the quarter with about $1.3 million cash on hand.

• The super PAC spent heavily in support of New York pro-AI safety candidate Alex Bores, who lost out to fellow Democrat Micah Lasher.
• In addition to the money from Public First PAC during this quarter, it received nearly $10 million from Public First Action, the affiliated 501(c)(4), during the reporting period.

The Republican-focused Defending Our Values PAC, meanwhile, closed out the quarter with nearly $315,000 cash on hand.

Guardrails Alliance, a newly launched super PAC backed by tech workers and founded by Democratic organizers, reported nearly $400,000 cash on hand.

• The group advocates for robust AI safety regulations, workers' rights and fighting what it considers AI billionaire efforts to buy elections.

Between the lines: Groups focused on AI safety and transparency are far behind industry fundraising.

The bottom line: As the midterms approach, AI PAC spending is ramping up.

• With roughly $31 million in its accounts, Leading the Future has significant room to expand its footprint before November.

Public First Action is launching a $15 million project to support Republican candidates in the midterms, according to an announcement shared first with Maria.

Why it matters: The bipartisan group is looking to appeal to conservative Americans who say they want AI rules.

Driving the news: The group launched more than $7 million in advertising to support conservative lawmakers who back AI regulation, including Sens. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.), Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) and Ashley Moody (R-Fla.), as well as Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Fla.).

• "The people running these AI companies have spent millions telling Washington that any guardrail is an attack on innovation," Public First Action co-founder and former Republican lawmaker Chris Stewart said.
• "Republicans know better," he added.
• Funding will also go to polling of conservative attitudes around AI.

What's next: The group is going to roll out ads over the next month supporting a dozen Republicans who have backed bills that would tighten U.S. control over semiconductors and sensitive tech.

• The ads will also support members who have worked to keep preemption of state AI laws out of the annual defense policy bill, according to the announcement.

A bipartisan group of House lawmakers today introduced legislation to ensure humans, not AI or machines, make the final decision when the U.S. military uses lethal force.

Why it matters: Lawmakers in both parties are looking to set legal guardrails for military AI as autonomous weapons play a larger role in modern warfare.

Driving the news: Reps. Don Beyer (D-Va.), Tom Barrett (R-Mich.) and Sara Jacobs (D-Calif.) introduced the Human Authority over Autonomous Weapons Act, shared first with Axios.

• The bill would require the Defense Department to ensure any intentionally lethal use of an autonomous or AI-enabled weapon system is subject to "human oversight, approval, or a human-in-the-loop."
• It would also require commanders to verify AI-generated targets using a non-AI source for the first five years after enactment.
• Missile defense systems would be exempt, per the bill text.

The big picture: While the Pentagon has existing policy requiring "appropriate levels of human judgment over the use of force," this bill would put human oversight requirements into federal law.

Keep reading.

Alumni of the Obama and Biden administrations are launching a public policy initiative aimed at defining the center-left perspective on AI.

Why it matters: Democrats across the country are taking action on AI as the midterms near, implementing data center moratoriums and running for office on AI safety platforms.

Driving the news: The American Innovation Policy Forum is looking to shape the Democratic vision for AI ahead of 2028, the group exclusively told Maria.

• The group plans to hold listening sessions across the country to zero in on community concerns about AI and bring them back to Washington.
• Those conversations will inform policy recommendations that fellows will brief lawmakers on starting in the fall.

Read more.