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Data: FactSet; Chart: Axios Visuals

A new analysis argues U.S. domestic natural gas prices are no longer untethered from the growth of liquefied natural gas exports.

Driving the news: The Center for Strategic and International Studies' Nikos Tsafos points out that for most of the five years since U.S. LNG exports began, there was basically no relation to prices.

  • But that's no longer true.
  • "In Q3 2021, however, there was strong evidence that exports are the primary demand driver for U.S. gas and thus the increase in prices," Tsafos writes.

How it works: U.S. gas demand has been largely flat, so has production, but exports have been climbing sharply this year and are a "main driver of higher natural gas prices in the United States as the country heads into winter."

Why it matters: Tsafos argues that the political impact of the new landscape depends on how much domestic production responds to higher prices at a time when investors want restraint from drillers.

Go deeper: What's behind the rising energy prices

Go deeper

The biggest headline from Biden's town hall

President Biden greets attendees during a commercial break in Baltimore last night. Photo: Nicholas Kamm/AFP via Getty Images

What matters from President Biden's town hall with CNN's Anderson Cooper at Baltimore Center Stage on Thursday:

The biggest headline: Biden is jettisoning the corporate tax increases that White House officials have insisted, for the past 10 months, are wildly popular across the country. He admitted he doesn't have the votes.

Changing the inflation conversation

Illustration: Annelise Capossela/Axios

Inflation looks like it’ll run hot for longer than plenty of smart people thought it would. The conversation over just how much more Americans will have to pay for their stuff has taken on a new intensity, as supply problems show few signs of fading.

Why it matters: The rate of price growth has remained consistently strong in recent months — a time that some thought would bring cooling prices after an initial reopening spike. What goes on with prices will influence the decisions made by Congress, the Biden Administration, and the Federal Reserve.

"Atmospheric river" to whiplash Northern California from drought to flood

A map depicting 24-hour preciptation forecast (inches) ending Monday at 5a.m. local time. Photo: NOAA

A series of powerful "atmospheric river" storms are set dump historic amounts of rainfall across parts of drought-stricken California and the Pacific Northwest from this weekend, forecasters warn.

Why it matters: A strong atmospheric river, packing large amounts of moisture, is predicted to whiplash Northern California from drought to flood.