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Mexican presidential frontrunner spells tension for U.S.–Mexico ties

Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador presidential candidate of Mexico talks during the XVI edition of the National Forum of Tourism at Chapultepec Castle on May 07, 2018 in Mexico City, Mexico.
Andrés Manuel López Obrador, presidential candidate of Mexico, talks during the XVI edition of the National Forum of Tourism in Mexico City on May 7, 2018. Photo: Carlos Tischler via Getty Images

Mexico elects its next president on July 1, and if present polls hold, the populist Andrés Manuel López Obrador — the former leftist mayor of Mexico City and twice-defeated presidential candidate known as “AMLO” — will prevail.

Why it matters: AMLO’s is a decidedly "Mexico First" agenda. AMLO, if he is elected, and Trump would be natural antagonists, but enablers as well, as each would fit the other’s vision of the bilateral relationship.