Sign up for our daily briefing

Make your busy days simpler with Axios AM/PM. Catch up on what's new and why it matters in just 5 minutes.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday

Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Denver news in your inbox

Catch up on the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Denver

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Des Moines news in your inbox

Catch up on the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Des Moines

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Minneapolis-St. Paul news in your inbox

Catch up on the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Twin Cities

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Tampa Bay news in your inbox

Catch up on the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Tampa Bay

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Charlotte news in your inbox

Catch up on the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Charlotte

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

The Energy Information Administration unveiled its annual long-term forecasts Thursday and here's a hot take: The U.S. is going to keep pumping lots of oil and shale will remain the dominant force.

Expand chart
Reproduced from EIA; Chart: Axios Visuals

The big picture: Just how much production will depend on price, resource and technology variables, some of them reflected in the chart above (where "tight" oil is a proxy for shale). In the EIA's central or "Reference" scenario, "U.S. crude oil production continues to grow through 2030 and then plateaus at more than 14.0 million barrels per day (b/d) until 2040."

The intrigue: Bloomberg reporters noticed something interesting from what we could label in the "life moves pretty fast" file:

  • "A year ago, the U.S. government saw American crude production averaging 11.95 million barrels a day in 2042. Shale drillers are set to exceed that this year," they note.
  • "The Energy Information Administration now estimates output will top out at 14.53 million barrels a day in 2031."

Why it matters: The crude surge is a reason behind one of the key findings — that the U.S. as a net energy exporter will be the new normal.

  • The report's Reference case projects that the U.S. becomes a net energy exporter in 2020 and stays that way through the end of its projection period in 2050.
  • It's the result of "large increases in crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas plant liquids (NGPL) production coupled with slow growth in U.S. energy consumption," according to the EIA report.
  • Of note: the EIA already said in a separate report recently that the U.S. would be a net exporter of crude and petroleum products combined in Q4 of 2020, but the new report signals its view that this will be a long-lasting dynamic.

What's next: I plan to explore one of the other findings — the EIA's pessimistic projection of electric vehicle adoption — some time next week.

Go deeper: US to become a net energy exporter in 2020 for first time in nearly 70 years, Energy Dept says (CNBC)

Go deeper

President Joe Biden vows to be "a president for all Americans"

Moments after taking the oath of office, President Joe Biden sought to soothe a nation riven by political divisions and a global pandemic, while warning that "we have far to go" to heal the country and defeat a "virus that silently stalks the the country."

Why it matters: From the same steps that a pro-Trump mob launched an assault on Congress two weeks earlier, the new president paid deference to the endurance of American political institutions.

Updated 40 mins ago - Politics & Policy

Inauguration Day dashboard

U.S. Capitol and stage are lit at sunrise ahead of the inauguration of Joe Biden. Photo: Patrick Semansky - Pool/Getty Images

President Biden has delivered his inaugural address at the Capitol, calling for an end to the politics as total war but warning that "we have far to go" to heal the country.

What's next: Biden and Vice President Harris review readiness of military troops, a long-standing tradition to signify the peaceful transfer of power.

Updated 1 hour ago - Politics & Policy

In photos: The Biden and Harris inauguration

Joe Biden is sworn in as the 46th president of the United States. Photo: Alex Wong/Getty Images

Joe Biden and Kamala Harris were inaugurated as president and vice president respectively in a ceremony at the U.S. Capitol on Wednesday morning.

Why it matters: Top Democrats and Republicans gathered for the peaceful transfer of power only two weeks after an unprecedented siege on the building by Trump supporters to disrupt certification of Biden's victory. Trump did not attend Wednesday's ceremony.