Aguirre takes lead in San Diego County supervisor race

Imperial Beach Mayor Paloma Aguirre is poised to become San Diego's new county supervisor, based on early ballot returns Tuesday night.

Why it matters: Aguirre gives Democrats a 3-2 majority on the County Board of Supervisors, which controls an $8.6 billion budget.

Driving the news: Aguirre took a roughly 6 percentage point lead — 53.2% to 46.8% — over Republican Chula Vista Mayor John McCann on election night.

• About 70,000 ballots were counted, mostly mail-in, with a projected 9,500 outstanding.

What they're saying: "It's a new day in the South Bay! Today belongs to the working class families of South County, a nuestra gente trabajadora," Aguirre said in a statement on X late Tuesday night.

• "Now, it's time for urgent action our families need: clean up the sewage, lower costs and deliver results. Thank you, South County! Let's get to work."
• Meanwhile, McCann told the Union-Tribune that he was in a "competitive position," after the initial results.

State of play: The vacancy opened in December when former Board Chair Nora Vargas resigned a month after winning re-election.

• Aguirre would fill the remainder of that four-year term, representing the district that covers the southern part of the county.

Between the lines: Despite its 2-2 partisan deadlock, the board of supervisors struck a budget compromise last week.

• But Aguirre's win could lead to policy changes opposed by Republicans, like proposals to unleash county reserves to prevent service cuts, to put a tax measure on an upcoming ballot, or to further prevent county cooperation with federal immigration enforcement.

The bottom line: Aguirre focused her campaign message on her record fighting to clean up the cross-border sewage crisis that plagues her city.

• A win would put her in position to expand the county's role in that fight.