Turnout watch: Votes trickle in ahead of San Diego County District 1 special election
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About 13% of South Bay voters had cast ballots as of Friday in the special election to elect a new District 1 county supervisor.
Why it matters: Election Day is Tuesday. The last special election, in 2023, for a county supervisor saw just 22.7% voter turnout — compared with 55% turnout in November's general election — and this one could be on track for similarly low engagement.
By the numbers: There are 373,409 registered voters in District 1 and as of Friday morning, 48,945 had returned their ballots, according to Edgewater Strategies, a political consultant that tracks daily returns.
- Of those, nearly half have come from registered Democrats, a third have come from registered Republicans and just over 20% have come from independent voters.
State of play: Only one high-profile Republican is in the race — Chula Vista Mayor John McCann — while three Democrats who already hold elected office are battling for those blue votes.
- Imperial Beach Mayor Paloma Aguirre, San Diego Councilmember Vivian Moreno and Chula Vista Councilmember Carolina Chavez are the primary Democratic candidates.
- The top two vote getters will advance to a July 1 runoff election — unless one candidate gets more than 50% of the vote and wins outright on Tuesday.
Between the lines: Republicans so far are overperforming in the special election, accounting for 33% of returned ballots but just 22% of registered voters.
- Democrats are tracking along with their registration — they represent 45% of returned ballots and 45% of registered voters.
- Independent voters, then, are underperforming, accounting for 21% of returned ballots but nearly 33% of registered voters.
Context: Four days out from the November general election, 29% of District 1 voters had already cast their ballot, compared to 13% now.
- Mason Herron, a partner at Edgewater Strategies, told Axios voters are more likely to procrastinate in a general election, since it has many races that require research.
- "So it's probably unlikely you will see a surge at the end like we saw in 2024," Herron wrote in an email.
The bottom line: Outside groups had spent $2.5 million on the race — with the largest amounts in favor of Moreno and against Aguirre — as of Friday, per Edgewater Strategies.
- Those groups are likely to dump more money into the race in a final blitz.