How the GOP lost its San Diego stronghold

Why it matters: No Republican has won statewide office in California since former Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger won reelection in 2006, and the county's District 3 supervisor race could indicate if the San Diego GOP is similarly resigned to the margins.

Driving the news: County Supervisor Terra Lawson-Remer, a Democrat, is running for reelection against former San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer, a Republican.

• The race is officially nonpartisan, but the winner will determine which party holds a 3-2 advantage at the county level and will have more control over its $8.5 billion budget.

Catch up quick: 10 years ago, while Faulconer was mayor, and a fellow Republican was city attorney — the only other citywide office — Democrats held a narrow 5-4 edge on the city council. Republicans had a 4-1 advantage at the county after years of a 5-0 edge.

The latest: Democrats now have a 9-0 city council majority, a Democratic mayor running for reelection against an independent, the city attorney race is between two Democrats, one of whom left the Republican party five years ago and both council races are between Democrats.

By the numbers: The change in elected leadership follows changes in voter registration.

• Republicans in 2004 represented 42% of registered voters in the county, compared to 34.4% of Democrats.
• By 2014, Democrats eked out an advantage, with 35% of registered county voters compared to Republicans' 33.3%.
• This year, 41% of county voters are Democrats and 27.7% are Republicans.

What they're saying: Ron Nehring, former chair of the Republican Party for both the state and San Diego County, told Axios the local GOP decline is a function of how the parties have realigned nationwide.

• Losing ground with college-educated voters but improving with blue collar workers, Nehring said, has disproportionately hurt Republicans in heavily suburban areas like San Diego County without hurting them nationally.
• "Can Republicans still compete in suburban districts? Yes — with the right candidate and the right campaign," he said. "Party brands are just nationally driven. For Republicans, this puts a premium on running more sophisticated campaigns with candidates who are able to define themselves, rather than just be an extension of national politics."

Case in point: Lawson-Remer's campaign has blasted voters with a photo of Faulconer in the oval office with Trump with the simple message "Trump Republican Kevin Faulconer for County Supervisor?"

• Faulconer's campaign, meanwhile, sent voters an all-blue mailer describing him as "pro-climate action," "pro-choice," and "pro-affordable housing" while groups supporting him described him as "standing against the Project 2025 agenda" and told voters "After voting for Kamala, don't forget to vote for Kevin," as Voice of San Diego detailed.
• In 2018, Republican Councilwoman Lorie Zapf became the first council incumbent to lose re-election since 1992 during a campaign focused on little more than tying her to Trump.

Between the lines: Local Republicans kept winning races after losing their registration advantage in part with the help of election rules that have since changed.

• In 2010, county voters instituted term limits leading to the departure of two Republican incumbents who kept winning races long after their districts became blue.
• In 2016, city voters passed election reform forcing all races to November runoffs — when voter turnout is higher, which in San Diego tends to favor Democrats — eliminating a rule that allowed candidates to win outright in primaries if they surpassed 50% of the vote.

Fun fact: Between Faulconer's two terms on the city council and two terms as mayor, he has never won during a general election.

• A win against Lawson-Remer would be his first victory in November.