Shapiro sets his sights beyond governor's race
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Gov. Josh Shapiro is running like he's behind, even though polls show he's up by wide margins.
Why it matters: Shapiro wants to run up the score and aim for a rare Democratic trifecta in the state legislature. A big win could boost his national profile for a possible presidential run, according to political experts who spoke to Axios.
Context: A Quinnipiac Poll from early October shows 59% of likely Pennsylvania voters support Shapiro, compared with 34% for Republican state Treasurer Stacy Garrity.
- Shapiro has raised about 10 times as much as Garrity, per the most recent campaign filings, and he is dominating the advertising space, outpacing her 43-1.
Catch up quick: Even with a huge lead, Shapiro is running as hard as ever.
- He's openly campaigning for a trifecta, he told supporters at a rally in Philadelphia last month.
- He has donated $5.6 million to downballot Democratic races since the summer.
- He is crisscrossing the state to support his state legislature and congressional candidates.
What they're saying: "He is leveraging his strength much more directly than I have seen before to downballot candidates," said J.J. Abbott, a former staffer for former Gov. Tom Wolf and now a Democratic strategist working on several campaigns in Pennsylvania.
Zoom in: Shapiro has said he will increase the minimum wage to $15 an hour, codify abortion and LGBTQ+ rights, and pass an affordable housing plan if Dems get a trifecta.
- Shapiro often says the Republicans in the state Senate are blocking his efforts and bills from the Democratic-controlled state House.
Zoom out: Abbott says these efforts are about rebuilding the Democratic brand in a state where it sank to new lows after the 2024 election.
- "Shapiro is making the argument, 'You trust me and like me, if you get rid of the people stopping me, I will do the things.'"
Between the lines: This also helps to build up Shapiro as a presidential contender, Alison Dagnes, a political science professor at Shippensburg University, tells Axios.
- A massive victory for Shapiro in the nation's biggest swing state could impress political pundits, who could then start raising his profile with a national electorate that still doesn't know him well, says Dagnes.
- "If you are seen as a winner and the framing is you are a winner, that does give you an advantage on the national stage."
The other side: Garrity has repeatedly alleged that Shapiro cares more about running for president than about working for Pennsylvanians.
The bottom line: If Shapiro doesn't get a trifecta, he will be stalled again. But if he does, his brand of "getting shit done" could be amplified, says Dagnes.
- "His argument is that he is a hard worker for you."