Dems appear to flip state House seat in Cranberry
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With all precincts reported but still some ballots left to count, Democrats appear to have flipped a conservative state House district north of Pittsburgh.
The latest: Democrat Brandon Dukes led by 88 votes against Republican Scott Timko on Tuesday night with over 99% of the votes counted, according to the Associated Press.
- Provisional and overseas ballots still need to be counted. AP had not called the race as of early Wednesday morning.
Why it matters: The apparent flip doesn’t impact Democrats' narrow majority in the state House, but it boosts the party’s momentum heading into the midterms, where Dems are hoping to take control of Pennsylvania.
The big picture: Dukes overcame a district that voted for President Trump by over 18 points in 2024, one of the Dems’ best special election performances of the cycle.
- Democrat James Malone narrowly flipped a state Senate seat in Lancaster County in 2025, overcoming a 15-point Trump district.
Context: In over 200 state and federal elections since Trump took office in 2025, Dems have outperformed former Vice President Kamala Harris by an average of five points, and in some special elections have outrun Harris by over 20 points, according to Politico.
Zoom in: Dukes secured 8,434 votes (50.2%) compared to Timko's 8,346 votes (49.7%).
- That's a 19-point overperformance in the district compared to Trump in 2024.
State of play: The district covers Cranberry, Mars, Zelienople, Evans City and Jackson Township in Butler County.
- Dukes replaces former state Rep. Stephenie Scialabba (R-Cranberry), who resigned in March.
Dukes ran on raising the minimum wage, boosting public school districts and improving road infrastructure projects in the fast-growing district, and wants strict regulations on data centers.
What they’re saying: Gov. Josh Shapiro congratulated Dukes on his apparent victory and said on X, "Pennsylvanians are rising up and using their power to combat the chaos, cruelty, and corruption — and we’re not slowing down."
- Pittsburgh area Democrats took to social media to exclaim "blueberry," referring to their longtime goal to turn Cranberry blue.
Flashback: In spring 2018, former Rep. Conor Lamb’s upset victory in a special election flipped a district south of Pittsburgh that Trump won by nearly 20 points in 2016 and forecast a blue wave later that year that netted Democrats 41 House seats.
The bottom line: Pennsylvania Democrats need to net two more seats in the state Senate and hold the state House, and for Gov. Shapiro to win re-election, to control all three houses in Harrisburg for the first time since 1993.