Cranberry special election could set midterm tone
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Illustration: Maura Losch/Axios
A special election north of Pittsburgh on Tuesday could be a barometer for a potential blue wave.
The big picture: Democrats have been overperforming in special elections under Trump 2.0, and local results to fill a vacancy in Pennsylvania’s state House District 12 could indicate how well they will perform in the upcoming midterms.
- This special election is the last in the state before the November midterm elections.
Zoom in: Republican Scott Timko, a commercial pilot, is facing off against Democrat Brandon Dukes, who works as a loan administrator.
- The two are vying to replace former state Rep. Stephenie Scialabba (R-Cranberry), who resigned in March.
State of play: The district covers Cranberry, Mars, Zelienople, Evans City and Jackson Township in Butler County.
- President Trump won the district by about 18 points in 2024.
- The race has attracted some high-profile support, including former U.S. transportation secretary and Democratic presidential hopeful Pete Buttigieg, who endorsed Dukes last week.
Between the lines: Democrats are hopeful the district can flip, since they have been performing well in districts with its demographic makeup: fast-growing municipalities, a highly educated workforce, and median household incomes above $100,000.
- Chatham University political science professor Jennie Sweet-Cushman told Public Source she thinks Democrats will improve from their 2024 performance, but is skeptical they can flip the seat.
What’s next: Polls are open from 7am–8pm Tuesday.