Punxsy Phil's 2026 prediction: Partly right
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Punxsutawney Phil was a pretty good boy this year. Photo: Jeff Swensen/Getty Images
It's been six weeks since Punxsutawney Phil predicted we would get six more weeks of winter.
The big picture: Was our famous groundhog correct?
Driving the news: Phil was partially correct, depending on where you live, NOAA Weather Prediction Center meteorologist Deirdre Dolan tells Axios.
What they're saying: "February was anomalously cold for the Northeast (including Pittsburgh), but temperatures elsewhere in the nation were warmer than average," said Dolan.
Zoom in: Pittsburgh's average February temperature was 30.7 degrees, about a degree lower than normal, according to NOAA.
- The region saw 11 days below freezing in February, which is about 3 days more than normal.
- Over 14 inches of snow fell between Feb. 2 and March 16, just a couple of inches shy of normal for that time range.
Zoom out: Cleveland, New York City, Orlando and Bangor, Maine, also had colder-than-average February temperatures. New York also got 12 more inches of snow than usual in February.
- But regions west of the Mississippi River saw much warmer February temperatures than normal, according to NOAA.
- Denver and Kansas City were over 9 degrees warmer than usual, Minneapolis was over 6 degrees above normal and Las Vegas was 5 degrees warmer.
Between the lines: "This split in temperatures across the nation is not rare," said Dolan.
- The eastern half of the nation was under a persistent upper-level trough weather pattern, leading to storms and cold in February, while the western half was under an upper-level ridge, leading to dry and warm weather.
Even if Phil was mostly correct for his neck of the woods, his prediction was closer to four more weeks of winter, not six.
- Dolan says early March hasn't aligned with Phil's forecast.
- The first half of March had an average temperature of 48.3 degrees in Pittsburgh, over 11 degrees warmer than usual.
- Nearly every U.S. region saw a warmer first half of March, except for Montana and Washington state.
Reality check: "Portions of the western United States are actually seeing record-setting warm temperatures this week, with the potential for numerous daily and monthly temperature records to be tied or broken," Dolan said.
- Punxsutawney Phil's historical accuracy is about 35%, according to NOAA.
The bottom line: As the most famous and long-standing of North America's weather predicting animals, Phil carries the burden of the entire nation, and maybe that's not fair.
- We should only expect him to predict for his home of Western Pennsylvania, starting this year, when he was mostly correct.