Scoop: Voters aged 50+ disapprove of Gainey, AARP poll finds
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Mayor Gainey needs to win over voters 50 and older. Photo illustration: Axios Visuals; Photo: Duane Prokop/Getty Images
A new poll shows that almost 60% of voters aged 50 and up would choose Allegheny County Controller Corey O'Connor over Mayor Ed Gainey in the upcoming primary, Axios has learned.
Why it matters: Voters in that age bracket turn out in local elections, and with seven weeks until the primary election, it could spell big trouble for Gainey's reelection chances.
Driving the news: AARP surveyed 800 registered voters ages 50 and up within the city of Pittsburgh between March 12-18.
- Respondents included registered Democrats, Republicans and independents and were weighted to match the breakdowns of city voter rolls as closely as possible.
By the numbers: 53% of polled voters disapproved of Gainey's job performance, compared to 34% who approved.
- O'Connor leads Gainey 58% to 24% among older Democratic voters when they were asked whom they support in the upcoming primary. 16% were undecided and 2% refused to answer.
- In the Republican primary, former Pittsburgh police officer Tony Moreno leads small business owner Thomas West 46%-6%, with 46% undecided.
Between the lines: Voters 50 and older made up 57% of voters in the 2021 primary and 60% in the 2021 general, according to state election data.
- Just over 30% of Pittsburgh's overall population is 50 and older, according to census data.
Zoom out: Younger voters in the city tend to support more progressive politicians like Gainey, with college-aged districts like Oakland preferring the mayor by up to 80 percentage points in 2021.
Zoom in: Many of Gainey's housing initiatives, including inclusionary zoning, earned positive approval from older voters, but their top issue of the economy had him underwater.
- 46% of voters in the AARP poll believe the city economy is getting somewhat or much weaker, while just 14% believe it is getting somewhat or much stronger.
- This is despite strong city job growth out of the pandemic.
State of play: An internal poll from February showed O'Connor up 12 percentage points against Gainey among likely Democratic voters of all ages.
Fine print: Poll interviews were conducted by phone and online, with 650 live phone interviews (80.75%) and 155 (19.25%) from an opt-in panel sample list of registered voters age 50+ living in Pittsburgh. The margin of error was +/- 3.4% at the 95% confidence level.