Kansas fertility rates outpace the nation
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A corridor of Central Plains states that includes Kansas keeps posting higher fertility rates than the U.S. average, despite a decades-long national decline.
Why it matters: Birth rates shape everything downstream, from school enrollment to workforce pipelines and political clout, and the metro's two states are on different trajectories.
- Kansas sits inside the high-fertility corridor alongside the Dakotas, Nebraska, Oklahoma and Texas, while Missouri runs closer to the national average.
Zoom in: Kansas' 2024 fertility rate of 58.3 births per 1,000 women ages 15-44 ranked 13th highest among states, per CDC data.
- Missouri's was 55.9, still above the U.S. rate of 53.8.
- Both are sliding. Kansas' rate was 71.3 in 2005 and Missouri's was 65.9.
Zoom out: South Dakota led the nation at 66.7 last year, followed by Nebraska at 62.9. The six-state corridor averaged 59.3, well above the U.S. rate.
- At the other end, D.C. was lowest overall at 39.8, with Vermont, New Hampshire, Rhode Island and Oregon close behind.
What they're saying: "Generally in demography we find more births where moms can (more) easily find higher-waged jobs," family demographer Jennifer Glass tells Axios. "The gender wage gap is lower in Dallas than in Detroit or Pittsburgh, for example."
Researchers point to several other factors:
Demographics: U.S. Census data show Texas and North Dakota rank behind only Utah among the nation's youngest states, meaning more women are in their 20s and early 30s, when birth rates are highest.
Child care: Glass notes these costs are comparably lower here, while they have soared in coastal states.
Housing: Family-size homes remain far more affordable across much of the Plains than on the coasts.
- Kansas City's median sale price was $305,000 over the three months ending in May, per Redfin.
Culture: Americans are partnering, marrying and starting families later than previous generations, especially in larger metropolitan areas.
- But rural regions and more religious communities tend to see earlier marriage and childbearing, extending the years during which families might have additional children.
Stunning stat: CDC data shows the average American woman is expected to have about 1.6 children over her lifetime. That is down from more than 7 children per woman in 1800.
Reality check: Fertility rate and birth totals measure different things. Missouri recorded nearly twice as many total births as Kansas last year, 67,998 versus 33,984, simply because it has far more people.