Why Alabama front-runners are skipping debates and town halls

Zoom in: Democratic former Sen. Doug Jones has repeatedly challenged GOP Sen. Tommy Tuberville to hold a debate in the race for governor, but Tuberville has so far declined.

• It's a similar story in the race for a U.S. House of Representatives seat in Alabama's 5th District, which covers Huntsville, where Democrat Andrew Sneed is challenging Republican incumbent Dale Strong.

Catch up quick: Asked by Axios in Athens last month if he'd hold a town hall or debate, Tuberville said, "probably not."

• "There's so much difference between us, I mean, there's no reason to get up there and argue about differences of opinion," Tuberville said.

The other side: But Jones told Axios that's a major difference: Tuberville sees town halls as a way to tell voters about himself, he said, rather than as an opportunity to hear from voters.

• "Tommy Tuberville represents the same old Alabama state government … they do the things they want to do without regard to the public and what constituents say," Jones said. "You cannot just govern by simply giving speeches to the Chamber of Commerce."

The latest: When asked in Huntsville on Monday, Strong had a similar answer for Axios, referencing his telephone town halls and saying, "I'm going to continue to do what I do and let the other people do what they do … I think the people that have supported me appreciate the way I do business."

• "I think that it is the bare minimum, personally," Sneed told Axios on holding town halls, noting that Strong hasn't held an open, public town hall while in office.
• "I find it outrageous," Sneed said. "You can't represent folks you don't listen to."

State of play: Sneed and Jones have a slate of town halls scheduled, including in Huntsville, and both tell Axios their requests for debates and town halls have gone unanswered.

What they're saying: In an emailed statement to Axios, Tuberville's campaign chair Jordan Doufexis said, "There's nothing new to learn in a debate … Come November, the voters will decide and I am confident they will have enough information to make the right decision."

"Probably the biggest difference in me and Tuberville (is) our approach to leadership, how I listen to people," Jones said. "He's riding the roads talking to ChatGPT. I'm talking to voters."

• "The difference is access," Sneed said. "Tele-town halls are invite-only … he may or may not take a couple of screened questions, but that's different from an open public forum."

How it works: It's political calculus, explains Spencer Goidel, political science professor at Auburn University, that hinges on whether the race is competitive.

• He cited the odds on Kalshi, which give Tuberville a roughly 95% chance of winning the governor's race. The Cook Political Report lists Alabama's 5th Congressional District as R+15.
• "Do you want to go out and publicly make yourself vulnerable, where your opponent has an opportunity to … embarrass you?" Goidel told Axios. "Or do you just want Election Day to be tomorrow?"

Driving the news: Hot topics like data centers give front-runners even more reason to avoid debates or public town halls, Goidel tells Axios, while social media lets candidates reach voters directly.

Zoom out: That strategy trickles down from the top of the Republican establishment, too.

• NRCC chair Richard Hudson, for instance, told Republicans last year to stop holding in-person town halls following angry confrontations like those faced by Rep. Chuck Edwards (R-N.C.), who was booed and heckled in Asheville.

Context: Not all Republicans are following that advice, with Axios reporting last month that Rep. Mike Flood (R-Neb.) is still holding regular events that draw hundreds of people.

• Flood, whose district Cook rates at R+6, told Axios, "How do things get better if we don't talk to each other?"

The bottom line: "These are individuals who respond most strongly to electoral incentives," Goidel said. "Make them fear reelection, and they'll hold debates."