Cincinnati prepares for climate newcomers
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Climate change could make Cincinnati a destination for people fleeing increasingly inhospitable parts of the country — and city leaders want to be ready.
Why it matters: More people could mean more workers, taxpayers and economic growth, while adding pressure on housing and other resources.
By the numbers: A Cincinnati Regional Chamber analysis modeled scenarios in which the region gains as many as 500,000 residents from climate migration by 2050.
- They could come from coastal areas threatened by rising seas and hurricanes, the drought- and wildfire-prone West or places like Puerto Rico and Central America facing other climate pressures.
- Climate change may not be the sole reason people move, but repeated disasters, rising costs and disrupted livelihoods could push them out.
Driving the news: Cincinnati's new Climate Migration Readiness Plan — among the first in the U.S. — focuses on housing, transportation, resilient infrastructure and affordable energy.
- "Migration has been shaping the world and the economy for all of human history," Oliver Kroner, who leads the city's Office of Environment and Sustainability, tells Axios.
- Cincinnati's fresh water, relatively low natural disaster risk and affordability could make it an attractive destination, he says.
Flashback: Cincinnati started thinking about climate migration after Hurricane Katrina displaced thousands of New Orleans residents, including many who moved here.
- Seeing that migration firsthand showed city leaders how a major disaster could reshape where people live — and why Cincinnati should prepare, Kroner says.
The environmental case: Preparing also means making neighborhoods more resilient, including adding tree canopy and green space in heavily paved areas where heat can build up.
The business case: Pete Metz, the Chamber's VP of civic strategy and policy, says what could attract climate migrants — jobs, parks and fun things to do — is also what Cincinnati needs to grow its economy.
"You need to have housing unit growth. You need to make investments in your transportation system," Metz says, while highlighting the importance of maintaining affordability.
- The goal isn't to completely reinvent the city, he says. It's to "double down on the things we're doing and do them even more."
Zoom in: A June workshop in Walnut Hills brought residents, nonprofits, researchers and policymakers together to discuss how Cincinnati can prepare for newcomers.
- They also explored how to do that without worsening the shortage of 35,000 low-income housing units or displacing longtime residents.
Zoom out: Green Umbrella is working with Hamilton County, Covington, Oxford, Mariemont, Anderson Township and other communities to incorporate climate migration into long-term planning, executive director Van Sullivan says.
- That includes considering everything from social services to culturally appropriate foods.
"We have to be prepared as a region, not just in terms of physical infrastructure, but social infrastructure as well," Sullivan says. "How can we ensure that our region is welcoming and fosters belonging for anyone who wants to move here and call it home?"
The bottom line: Nobody knows how many climate migrants will come to Cincinnati or when. But local leaders don't want to sit around and wait to find out.
- "We're in the early days of a lot of this," Kroner says, "but there's enough anecdotal evidence that there's a signal in the noise that we're taking it seriously."