ICE arrests hit decade high, per CU Boulder economists
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U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement arrested more people per day in 2025 than at any other point in the past decade, even as the share of arrestees with criminal convictions fell to a near-historic low, a new study by University of Colorado economists reveals.
Why it matters: The data underscores a shift in enforcement priorities — away from targeting people with criminal records and toward broader sweeps — a strategy that could reshape the political and legal fight over immigration.
Driving the news: The findings come from a National Bureau of Economic Research working paper analyzing a decade of ICE arrest data.
- Chloe East, a labor economist and associate professor of economics at CU Boulder, examined ICE arrests between October 2015 and October 2025.
By the numbers: Immigration enforcement spiked at the outset of both of President Trump's terms — and increased even more the second time.
- In the first 10 months of Trump's first term, ICE averaged 435 arrests per day, a 43% increase from President Obama's final year in office.
- In the first 10 months of Trump's second term, that jumped to 821 arrests per day — 170% higher than in President Biden's last year.
Yes, but: Only 37% of ICE arrests in the first 10 months of Trump's second term involved people with criminal convictions — a sharp drop from prior administrations. The share was:
- 52% in Biden's final year.
- 70% in the first year of Trump's first term.
- 79% in Obama's final year.
Between the lines: Enforcement has shifted into public view.
- Nearly half of arrests in the first 10 months of Trump's second term were "community arrests" — at schools, churches, workplaces and on the street — up from 22% in his first term.
- The increases were especially pronounced in Democratic-leaning areas, including Colorado.
What they're saying: East said she fears heightened ICE enforcement efforts could make communities less safe by making law-abiding citizens afraid to interact with law enforcement to report crime.
- "Overall, our data provide important new evidence that simply increasing the funding and scale of ICE activity is unlikely to improve public safety," she said, per a news release.
What we're watching: The federal government is in a partial shutdown as Democrats hold up funding while demanding ICE reforms.