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Caribou graze in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge in Alaska. Photo: U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service / Getty Images

Fatih Birol, head of the International Energy Agency, doesn't expect to see much oil flowing from the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge for more than a decade.

On the record: The IEA chief told the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee Tuesday that modest prices and the bountiful shale opportunities will temper industry interest despite the region's proximity to the Trans-Alaska Pipeline and potentially huge hydrocarbon resources.

“With the current context, it will be difficult to believe that there will be a substantial amount of oil production coming from that region before 2030, unless we see some surprises in the markets." Birol tells Senate panel

Why it matters: The tax overhaul bill that President Trump signed late last year authorizes oil-and-gas leasing on ANWR's coastal plain, providing a big victory for Alaskan officials and oil-and-gas advocates who have fought for decades to open the region.

  • However, Birol's comments lend weight to the view that development will likely be slow to materialize once leases are sold. The tax bill requires Interior to hold the first lease sale within the next four years.

Yes, but: Birol was more bullish on the prospect of LNG exports from Alaska. It's a prospect that's gaining new attention following a preliminary agreement between Chinese companies, the state of Alaska and the Alaska Gasline Development Corporation.

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Illustration: Eniola Odetunde/Axios

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  2. Politics: Biden unveils "wartime" COVID strategyBiden's COVID-19 bubble.
  3. Vaccine: Florida requiring proof of residency to get vaccine — CDC extends interval between vaccine doses for exceptional cases.
  4. World: Hong Kong to put tens of thousands on lockdown as cases surge.
  5. Sports: 2021 Tokyo Olympics hang in the balance.
  6. 🎧 Podcast: Carbon Health's CEO on unsticking the vaccine bottleneck.

Trump impeachment trial to start week of Feb. 8, Schumer says

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer. Photo: The Washington Post via Getty

The Senate will begin former President Trump's impeachment trial the week of Feb. 8, Majority Leader Chuck Schumer announced Friday on the Senate floor.

The state of play: Schumer announced the schedule after reaching an agreement with Republicans. The House will transmit the article of impeachment against the former president late Monday.

3 hours ago - Health

CDC extends interval between COVID vaccine doses for exceptional cases

Photo: Joseph Prezioso/AFP via Getty

Patients can space out the two doses of the coronavirus vaccine by up to six weeks if it’s "not feasible" to follow the shorter recommended window, according to updated guidance from the Centers for Disease and Control and Prevention.

Driving the news: With the prospect of vaccine shortages and a low likelihood that supply will expand before April, the latest changes could provide a path to vaccinate more Americans — a top priority for President Biden.