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Data: CME Group; Chart: Andrew Witherspoon/Axios

Despite Fed chair Jay Powell's "hawkish" rate cut last month, expectations for more cuts from the Fed are growing, thanks in large part to President Trump and the trade war.

What's happening: Investors are now pricing in a 0% chance the Fed doesn't move at its next meeting in September and a nearly 50% likelihood of 3 rate cuts by year-end.

  • Fed funds futures prices tracked by CME Group's FedWatch tool shows investors see an almost equal chance that the Fed will either cut rates by a full percentage point by its December meeting or that it cuts 25 basis points — that's in addition to July's 0.25% cut.

Watch this space: The only reason for the Fed to cut rates by 1% or more in a year would be that the U.S. economy is in peril.

Go deeper

Trump and Biden clash over COVID: "It is what it is because you are who you are"

Joe Biden attacked President Trump at the presidential debate on Tuesday for his response to the coronavirus pandemic, accusing him of panicking and failing to prepare for the crisis when he was warned about it in February.

The big picture: "It is what it is because you are who you are," Biden said, alluding to an answer Trump gave in an interview with "Axios on HBO" when asked about the 150,000+ death toll from the coronavirus. Trump responded by claiming that Biden would not have shut down travel from China in the early days of the pandemic, and he defended his administration's mass production of ventilators and protective equipment.

Debate dashboard: Catch up fast

Photo: Win McNamee/Getty Images

Biden: "I am the Democratic Party right now"

Responding to President Trump's insistence that the Democratic Party "wants to go socialist medicine," Joe Biden said at the presidential debate on Tuesday: "I am the Democratic Party."

Why it matters: Trump has repeatedly claimed that the Democratic nominee is not in control of his party and that he will be "dominated" by progressives like Sen. Bernie Sanders and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Unlike other candidates who Biden ran against in the Democratic primary, he does not support Medicare for All or abolishing private health insurance.

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