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Adapted from the U.S. Department of Commerce; Chart: Axios Visuals

The Fed's preferred measure of inflation sank in the first quarter, coming in at 1.3% compared to 1.8% in the prior quarter, the Commerce Department said on Friday.

Why it matters: Inflation continues to drift further below the Fed's 2% target, despite strong economic growth and a booming labor market — strengthening the case to hold off on raising interest rates and potentially cut rates.

  • As of Friday afternoon, traders' bets that the Fed would cut rates by year-end jumped 1.3% higher from where they were yesterday. In the meantime, the odds of two rate cuts rose to 20% from 15%.

The backdrop: The Trump administration, including President Trump himself, has called on the Fed to cut interest rates and sought to fill vacant seats at the Fed with candidates who support this case.

  • The White House's top economic adviser Larry Kudlow said again on Friday that the Fed should cut rates, telling CNBC: "The inflation rate continues to slip lower and lower."
  • Fed officials have also hinted at the possibility of a rate cut, as Bloomberg points out. Earlier this month, Chicago Fed president Charles Evans told reporters that if "inflation were to move down to, let's just say, 1.5%" that would mean interest rates at the current level were "holding back inflation, and so that would naturally call for a lower funds rate."

What's next: The Fed will hold a two-day policy meeting next week. No rate change is expected, but brace for plenty of questions about whether or not the Fed is concerned about the inflation slowdown.

Go deeper: The absence of inflation is forcing a wide-ranging rethink of long-held economic assumptions

Go deeper

Americans reflect on Independence Day amid racism reckoning

A Black Lives Matter banner and a United States flag on the facade of the U.S. embassy building in Seoul, South Korea. Photo: Simon Shin/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images

America's leaders are rethinking how they view Independence Day, as the country reckons with the historic, unequal treatment of people of color during a pandemic which has disproportionately affected nonwhite Americans.

Why it matters: The country’s legacy of racism has come into sharp focus in the weeks of protests following the death of George Floyd while in Minneapolis police custody. From Confederate statues to Mount Rushmore, Americans are reexamining the symbols and traditions they elevate and the history behind them.

Updated 12 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

  1. Global: Total confirmed cases as of 7 p.m. ET: 11,031,905 — Total deaths: 523,777 — Total recoveries — 5,834,337Map.
  2. U.S.: Total confirmed cases as of 7 p.m. ET: 2,788,395 — Total deaths: 129,306 — Total recoveries: 790,404 — Total tested: 34,213,497Map.
  3. States: ICU beds in Arizona's hot spot reach near capacity.
  4. Public health: The states where face coverings are mandatory Fauci says it has been a "very disturbing week" for the spread of the coronavirus in the U.S.
  5. Economy: The economy may recover just quickly enough to kill political interest in more stimulus.
15 hours ago - Sports

Washington Redskins to review team name amid public pressure

Photo: Patrick McDermott/Getty Images

The Washington Redskins have announced they will be conducting a review of the team's name after mounting pressure from the public and corporate sponsors.

Why it matters: This review is the first formal step the Redskins are taking since the debate surrounding the name first began. It comes after weeks of discussions between the team and the NFL, the team said.