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Checking documents this month in Assam. Photo: Anuwar Ali Hazarika/Barcroft Media via Getty Images

In just a few days, some 4 million people in India could find themselves without a country.

Why it matters: This could quickly become the largest crisis of stateless people on the planet.

The big picture: This is happening in Assam, a hilly, landlocked state at the eastern edge of India along the Bangladeshi border. (The famous "Assam" tea comes from there.)

Back in the early 1970s, during Bangladesh's war of independence from Pakistan, millions of Bengali Muslims fled across the border into Assam, dramatically shifting the province's demographics and leading to tensions with Assam's Hindu majority.

  • Nearly half a century later, Assam has the largest Muslim minority of any Indian state except Kashmir.

In the mid-1980s, India's government determined that any refugee who crossed the border into Assam after Bangladesh gained independence in 1971 should be a citizen of Bangladesh, not of India.

  • Since then, successive Indian governments have tried to determine which Assam residents have paperwork that proves they lived in India before that date.
  • But for many people, finding the right documents — and reading them, in a state where a quarter of the population is illiterate — is challenging, if not impossible.

Last year, the Assam state government finally published a draft National Registry of Citizens (NRC) that lists everyone who is a legal resident in Assam.

  • 4 million people, mostly Muslims who have been living in India for decades, were not on the list. Those people have until Aug. 31 to prove a pre-1971 claim to residence or they will be deemed illegal.

What to watch: The Indian government, like all governments, has the right and responsibility to know who is living on its territory and under what circumstances. But there are 2 big complications in the case of Assam.

First, what happens to these 4 million human beings if India officially marks them as illegal?

  • Bangladesh has said it will not accept the deportation of millions of people who have been living in India for almost 50 years.
  • Many of these 4 million people were born inside India after 1971. Should those people be "returned" to a country they've never known?
  • Assam authorities are reportedly building detention camps that could constitute a horrific human rights violation.

Second, the Assam crackdown looks like the prelude to a broader bid by the national government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Hindu Nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to discriminate against India's Muslims.

  • This spring, the BJP announced that it wants to extend the citizenship registry to the whole country in a bid to remove anyone who isn't a "Buddhist, Hindu, or Sikh."
  • Interior Minister Amit Shah, who headed the BJP in the run-up to its sweeping election victory last year, has called Bengali Muslims "termites" and pledged to throw them into the sea.

The bottom line: The BJP is flush with power after the last election — but seeking to marginalize India's 177 million Muslims from what it means to be "Indian" risks destabilizing a precarious balance among faiths and ethnicities in the world's largest democracy.

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Go deeper

CCP releases two jailed Canadians after Huawei CFO deal with DOJ

Photo: Sheldon Cooper/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images

Two Canadians imprisoned by the Chinese government for over 1,000 days have been released and are expected to arrive in Canada on Saturday, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Friday.

Why it matters: Their release comes hours after Huawei Technologies CFO Meng Wanzhou reached a deal with the U.S. Department of Justice that resolves the criminal charges against her and could pave the way for her to return to China.

Updated 14 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Arizona GOP's private recount of 2020 election confirms Biden's win

Contractors working on behalf of the GOP examine and recount 2020 ballots at Arizona Veterans Memorial Coliseum in Phoenix in May. Photo: Courtney Pedroza/Getty Images

In an odd coda to the 2020 election, private contractors conducting a GOP-commissioned recount in Arizona confirmed President Biden’s win in Maricopa County.

Why it matters: The unofficial, party-driven recount has been heavily covered on cable news as part of former President Trump's continued effort to sow doubt about the election result.

Del Rio bridge camp empty following Haitian migrant surge

A boy bathes himself in a jug of water inside a migrant camp at the U.S.-Mexico border on Sept. 21 in Del Rio, Texas. Photo: John Moore/Getty Images

The last migrants camping under the Del Rio International Bridge, which connects Texas and Mexico, departed on Friday, Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas announced during a White House press briefing.

Driving the news: Thousands of migrants, mostly from Haiti, had arrived to the makeshift camp after crossing the southern border seeking asylum. Roughly 1,800 migrants will now head to U.S. Customs and Border Protection processing centers.