Sign up for our daily briefing

Make your busy days simpler with Axios AM/PM. Catch up on what's new and why it matters in just 5 minutes.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Stay on top of the latest market trends

Subscribe to Axios Markets for the latest market trends and economic insights. Sign up for free.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Sports news worthy of your time

Binge on the stats and stories that drive the sports world with Axios Sports. Sign up for free.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Tech news worthy of your time

Get our smart take on technology from the Valley and D.C. with Axios Login. Sign up for free.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Get the inside stories

Get an insider's guide to the new White House with Axios Sneak Peek. Sign up for free.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday

Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Denver news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Denver

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Des Moines news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Des Moines

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Twin Cities news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Twin Cities

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Tampa Bay news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Tampa Bay

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Charlotte news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Charlotte

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

The most important issue in an election is sometimes, but seldom, the factor that actually determines the outcome of the election. That's what we saw happen in Virginia this week. Health was the top issue in the Virginia race, according to exit polls, but it was only one of many factors that drove the election.

The bottom line: The election may have been more of a referendum on President Trump than health care — but the results in Virginia and in the Maine referendum on Medicaid expansion will still have a practical impact on what happens next, including the appetite for Affordable Care Act repeal and for cutting Medicaid to pay for tax cuts.

Expand chart
Data: Fox News voter analysis, Nov. 7; Chart: Axios Visuals

The details: Voters in Virginia named health care as far and away their top issue in the election in the network exit poll. It's not surprising that the issue was at the top of their minds; they have been hearing all about the ACA in the news for months and about Medicaid expansion in their state.

Yes, but: Notably, the exit poll did not include the economy on the list of issues voters could choose. Fox News did ask about the economy and, as the chart shows, it and health were statistically tied in their poll.

Between the lines: When voters rank health care as a top issue in an election, it does not necessarily mean health care drove their vote. Voters' views of the candidates themselves are generally a bigger factor. The candidates were also proxies for voters' feelings about President Trump, and many more voters in Virginia said they were voting to express opposition to Trump than their support for him (34% vs. 17%).

Most voters who chose health care as their top issue in Virginia voted for Northam, possibly signaling that Democrats may be able to campaign on health care and the ACA in upcoming elections.

What to watch: The Maine vote on Medicaid expansion was a different story. Maine voters cast their ballots on a specific referendum to expand the Medicaid program, and it won resoundingly. The result speaks to a lesson learned in the repeal and replace debate: Medicaid and Medicaid expansion are far more popular than Republicans seem to think they are, largely because Medicaid now covers 74 million Americans and matters to a broad cross section of the American people.

The impact: The immediate political implication is that it will be much tougher to cut Medicaid to help pay for tax cuts. Another lesson is that expanding Medicaid could be a winner in other states, especially with the federal government picking up 90 percent of the costs and the Trump administration ready to let red states put a conservative stamp on their programs. Medicaid is not Social Security or Medicare yet, but politically it is a lot closer than Republicans may realize.

A lot can and probably will happen between now and 2018. But for now, the prominence of health care in the Virginia election could throw a scare into moderate Republicans about continuing to pursue ACA repeal. And the Maine referendum on Medicaid expansion could make them more cautious about cutting Medicaid.

Go deeper

Sidewalk robots get legal rights as "pedestrians"

"We’ve got about 1,000 of them running around out there," Ryan Tuohy of Starship tells Axios. Photo courtesy of Starship Technologies.

As small robots proliferate on sidewalks and city streets, so does legislation that grants them generous access rights and even classifies them, in the case of Pennsylvania, as "pedestrians."

Why it matters: Fears of a dystopian urban world where people dodge heavy, fast-moving droids are colliding with the aims of robot developers large and small — including Amazon and FedEx — to deploy delivery fleets.

Felix Salmon, author of Capital
31 mins ago - Economy & Business

The biggest obstacle to a wealth tax

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

Taxing the rich is an idea that's back. An "ultra-millionaire tax" introduced by Elizabeth Warren and other left-wing Democrats this week would raise more than $3 trillion over 10 years, they say, while making the tax system as a whole more fair.

Why it matters: New taxes would be a necessary part of any Democratic plan to redistribute wealth and reduce inequality. But President Biden has more urgent priorities — and Warren's wealth tax in particular faces constitutional obstacles that make it a hard sell.

House passes sweeping election and anti-corruption bill

Photo: Win McNamee via Getty Images

The House voted 220-210Wednesday to pass Democrats' expansive election and anti-corruption bill.

Why it matters: Expanding voting access has been a top priority for Democrats for years, but the House passage of the For the People Act (H.R. 1) comes as states across the country consider legislation to rollback voting access in the aftermath of former President Trump's loss.

You’ve caught up. Now what?

Sign up for Mike Allen’s daily Axios AM and PM newsletters to get smarter, faster on the news that matters.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!