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Photo: J. Scott Applewhite / AP

Republican House members return to Washington on Monday — a day earlier than previously planned — to vote to proceed to a conference to hash out a final tax bill with the Senate.

None of my best sources — inside or out of Republican leadership — think there's much of a chance the GOP tax effort collapses.

Per a senior administration source: "There's always a chance for this Congress to f--- things up, but I don't think it will happen. Have one vote to spare in Senate. Lots of momentum." Republicans are saying they'll have final legislation on Trump's desk by the end of this month.

Per sources close to leadership:

  • Everyone agrees it's a good thing the Senate ditched Bob Corker's idea of inserting a "trigger" into the bill to automatically increase taxes if the growth fueled by tax cuts didn't bring as much money into the Treasury as Republicans promised. They lost Corker's vote — he was the only Republican senator to vote against the tax package — but the Republican House would have never agreed to his idea.
  • "They're really not all that far apart and it's easy to see what Senate provisions are better and what stuff the House needs. I still don't think the House could pass the Senate bill as-is."
  • "One thing no one is talking about — the Senate bill is super complex and they gave a lot back to get votes. House is still committed to their post card."

Go deeper

Dave Lawler, author of World
2 hours ago - World

How Biden might tackle the Iran deal

Photo illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios. Photo: Drew Angerer/Getty Images

Four more years of President Trump would almost certainly kill the Iran nuclear deal — but the election of Joe Biden wouldn’t necessarily save it.

The big picture: Rescuing the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) is near the top of Biden's foreign policy priority list. He says he'd re-enter the deal once Iran returns to compliance, and use it as the basis on which to negotiate a broader and longer-lasting deal with Iran.

Kamala Harris, the new left's insider

Photo illustration: Eniola Odetunde/Axios. Photo: Joe Buglewicz/Getty Images     

Progressive leaders see Sen. Kamala Harris, if she's elected vice president, as their conduit to a post-Biden Democratic Party where the power will be in younger, more diverse and more liberal hands.

  • Why it matters: The party's rising left sees Harris as the best hope for penetrating Joe Biden's older, largely white inner circle.

If Biden wins, Harris will become the first woman, first Black American and first Indian American to serve as a U.S. vice president — and would instantly be seen as the first in line for the presidency should Biden decide against seeking a second term.

Updated 10 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

  1. Health: Large coronavirus outbreaks leading to high death rates — Coronavirus cases are at an all-time high ahead of Election Day — U.S. tops 88,000 COVID-19 cases, setting new single-day record.
  2. Politics: States beg for Warp Speed billions.
  3. World: Taiwan reaches a record 200 days with no local coronavirus cases.
  4. 🎧Podcast: The vaccine race turns toward nationalism.