Photo: J. Scott Applewhite / AP

Republican House members return to Washington on Monday — a day earlier than previously planned — to vote to proceed to a conference to hash out a final tax bill with the Senate.

None of my best sources — inside or out of Republican leadership — think there's much of a chance the GOP tax effort collapses.

Per a senior administration source: "There's always a chance for this Congress to f--- things up, but I don't think it will happen. Have one vote to spare in Senate. Lots of momentum." Republicans are saying they'll have final legislation on Trump's desk by the end of this month.

Per sources close to leadership:

  • Everyone agrees it's a good thing the Senate ditched Bob Corker's idea of inserting a "trigger" into the bill to automatically increase taxes if the growth fueled by tax cuts didn't bring as much money into the Treasury as Republicans promised. They lost Corker's vote — he was the only Republican senator to vote against the tax package — but the Republican House would have never agreed to his idea.
  • "They're really not all that far apart and it's easy to see what Senate provisions are better and what stuff the House needs. I still don't think the House could pass the Senate bill as-is."
  • "One thing no one is talking about — the Senate bill is super complex and they gave a lot back to get votes. House is still committed to their post card."

Go deeper

President Trump's suburbs

Photo illustration: Annelise Capossela/Axios. Photo: Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call.

President Trump cast an outdated vision of "the 'suburban housewife'" as he swiped this week at Joe Biden's newly minted running mate Kamala Harris — building on his months-long play to drive a wedge through battleground-state suburbs by reframing white voters' expectations.

The big picture: As he struggles to find an attack that will stick against the Biden campaign, Trump for a while now has been stoking fears of lawless cities and an end to what he's called the “Suburban Lifestyle Dream.” It’s a playbook from the ‘70s and ‘80s — but the suburbs have changed a lot since then.

Trump tightens screws on ByteDance to sell Tiktok

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

President Trump added more pressure Friday night on China-based TikTok parent ByteDance to exit the U.S., ordering it to divest all assets related to the U.S. operation of TikTok within 90 days.

Between the lines: The order means ByteDance must be wholly disentangled from TikTok in the U.S. by November. Trump had previously ordered TikTok banned if ByteDance hadn't struck a deal within 45 days. The new order likely means ByteDance has just another 45 days after that to fully close the deal, one White House source told Axios.

Updated 10 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

  1. Global: Total confirmed cases as of 9:30 p.m. ET: 21,056,850 — Total deaths: 762,293— Total recoveries: 13,100,902Map.
  2. U.S.: Total confirmed cases as of 9:30 p.m ET: 5,306,215 — Total deaths: 168,334 — Total recoveries: 1,796,309 — Total tests: 65,676,624Map.
  3. Health: CDC: Survivors of COVID-19 have up to three months of immunity Fauci believes normalcy will return by "the end of 2021" with vaccine — The pandemic's toll on mental health — FDA releases first-ever list of medical supplies in shortage.
  4. States: California passes 600,000 confirmed coronavirus cases.
  5. Cities: Coronavirus pandemic dims NYC's annual 9/11 Tribute in Light.
  6. Business: How small businesses got stiffed — Unemployment starts moving in the right direction.
  7. Politics: Biden signals fall strategy with new ads.