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Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

A new Wood Mackenzie report tries to grapple with ways that the coronavirus pandemic might be an inflection point for the global energy system that changes its trajectory for decades.

Why it matters: The consultancy concludes that, depending on how things shake out, the pandemic could greatly accelerate coal's decline and hinder the long-term growth of oil demand.

The big picture: "Earlier pandemics have changed the world, and so will COVID-19. The impact will often be greatest when it reinforces shifts that are already underway, but it is also driving innovation in ways that can create radical changes in corporate and individual behaviour," it states.

What they did: The report takes a stab at modeling the largely unknowable by grouping long-term post-pandemic futures into three big conceptual buckets.

  • A "full recovery" scenario that assumes an effective vaccine; successful stimulus; and resumption of pre-crisis trade and travel. Corporate strategies and consumer behavior revert to pre-pandemic norms.
  • A "go it alone" scenario marked by slow economic recovery; new trade barriers; limited vaccine effectiveness; and weak climate action.
  • A "greener growth" scenario marked by aggressive policy support for low-carbon energy in economic response packages, tougher carbon pricing and more.

What they found: Big differences in the trajectory of different energy sources, which partly reflect the consequences of how governments craft their recovery packages.

Take oil. While all the possible futures see oil demand bouncing back to pre-crisis levels, things look a lot different by 2040 under the different cases.

  • In "full recovery," oil demand will be roughly 113 million barrels per day in 20 years, an expansion of the 100 million barrel per day pre-crisis market.
  • In "go it alone," that long-term growth is cut in half. The "greener growth" future, meanwhile, sees oil consumption going into a steep decline in about a decade, falling to around 83 million barrels daily by 2040.

What's next: The biggest difference in the three scenarios comes in the future of coal, which falls in all cases but at different rates.

  • In "greener growth," global consumption in 2040 is only about 60% of where it stands in the "full recovery" case.

The Wood Mackenzie report captures several ways that global energy use and different corporate sectors are impacted by responses to the pandemic.

  • One interesting one is how it could affect the movement of goods, which is an important driver of oil use via shipping, trucking and airplanes.

What they're saying: "The pandemic has exposed the risks in some critical extended supply chains, most urgently for medical equipment," the report notes.

  • "The longer the crisis lasts, the more governments and businesses will seek to source commodities, components and goods that are less distant and more secure."

Go deeper: 10 ways coronavirus is changing energy and climate change

Go deeper

Amy Harder, author of Generate
Aug 20, 2020 - Energy & Environment

Joe Biden unlikely to push carbon tax as part of climate change plan

Illustration: Eniola Odetunde/Axios

Joe Biden is unlikely to pursue a carbon tax if he wins in November, according to several people familiar with his campaign's thinking.

Driving the news: The campaign said last year it supported a price on carbon emissions, but it has since released policies that embody government mandates, investments and job creation amid the pandemic-induced recession.

Updated 35 mins ago - Politics & Policy

Giuliani associate Lev Parnas convicted of campaign finance crimes

Lev Parnas, a former associate of then-President Donald Trump’s personal lawyer Rudy Giuliani. Photo: Stefani Reynolds/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Florida businessman Lev Parnas was convicted Friday on charges of conspiracy to make foreign contributions to political campaigns, according to multiple outlets.

Why it matters: Prosecutors said Parnas, then an associate of former President Donald Trump's personal lawyer Rudy Giuliani, funneled over $150,000 from a Russian businessman into U.S. campaigns as part of an effort to land licenses in the U.S.'s legal cannabis industry.

Supreme Court agrees to hear challenges to Texas abortion law

Photo: Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images

The Supreme Court on Friday agreed to hear two cases challenging Texas' abortion law, which bans the procedure as soon as six weeks into pregnancy, but left the law in place in the meantime.

Why it matters: The court is moving extraordinarily fast on the Texas cases, compressing into just a few days a process that normally takes months. And that schedule means the court will take up Texas' ban a month before it hears another major abortion case — a challenge to Mississippi's own 2018 ban on abortions after 15 weeks.