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Expand chart
Data: Atlanta Fed and New York Fed; Chart: Axios Visuals

Even the world's top economists, using nothing but economic data releases, couldn't come close to an agreement on what Friday's U.S. GDP print would be.

Background: The New York and Atlanta Fed both have GDP forecast tools that plug various readings into a framework in order to provide a rolling estimate of what quarterly GDP is expected to be. Both central bank regional branches insist the forecasts don't reflect opinion or input from the economists, "just the data."

Two major differences between the forecasts:

  • The New York Fed's model factors in the previous quarter's data while Atlanta's does not.
  • The Atlanta Fed's model uses only certain economic data while the New York Fed's factors in every economic release on a sliding scale of importance.

The ultimate result? Atlanta ended up on the right trend. The economy grew at a 3.2% annualized rate in the first quarter of the year — a faster pace than the previous quarter's 2.2% and significantly more than the 2.1% economists were expecting, writes Axios' Courtenay Brown.

Go deeper ... Goldman Sachs: First quarter of 2019 is a "GDP pothole"

Go deeper

The rebellion against Silicon Valley (the place)

Photo illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios. Smith Collection/Gado via Getty Images

Silicon Valley may be a "state of mind," but it's also very much a real enclave in Northern California. Now, a growing faction of the tech industry is boycotting it.

Why it matters: The Bay Area is facing for the first time the prospect of losing its crown as the top destination for tech workers and startups — which could have an economic impact on the region and force it to reckon with its local issues.

Erica Pandey, author of @Work
1 hour ago - Economy & Business

Telework's tax mess

Illustration: Annelise Capossela/Axios

As teleworkers flit from city to city, they're creating a huge tax mess.

Why it matters: Our tax laws aren't built for telecommuting, and this new way of working could have dire implications for city and state budgets.

Wanted: New media bosses, everywhere

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

The Washington Post, Los Angeles Times, Reuters, HuffPost and Wired are all looking for new editors. Soon, The New York Times will be too.

Why it matters: The new hires will reflect a new generation — one that's addicted to technology, demands accountability and expects diversity to be a priority.