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Photo: Drew Angerer/Getty Images

Sales of gasoline-powered light-duty vehicles in the U.S. are unlikely to ever top their 2016 level of 17.3 million, according to an analysis from the think tank Third Way.

Why it matters: Transportation is the country's largest source of greenhouse gas emissions.

The big picture: The report adds to the emerging signs of "peak ICE."

  • That's the prospect that sales of internal combustion engine (ICE) cars in the U.S. and perhaps the world will never rise again.
Expand chart
Reproduced from Third Way; Chart: Axios Visuals

What's next: "Sales of gasoline powered vehicles will continue to fall due to the strong growth and now competitive viability of electric vehicles," the report predicts.

  • EVs are just a tiny share of vehicle sales right now.
  • But the analysis notes they have momentum, with sales of plug-in hybrids and full electrics combined growing fourfold since 2015 to reach an estimated 433,000 this year.
  • Nevertheless, it calls for policy measures that would speed up adoption of EVs, including incentives for re-tooling manufacturing plants to produce new models.

Go deeper: America’s war over natural gas hits home in New York

Go deeper

In photos: D.C. and U.S. states on alert for pre-inauguration violence

National Guard troops stand behind security fencing with the dome of the U.S. Capitol Building behind them, on Jan. 16. Photo: Kent Nishimura / Los Angeles Times via Getty Images

Security has been stepped up in Washington, D.C., and state capitols across the U.S. as authorities brace for potential violence this weekend.

Driving the news: Following the Jan. 6 insurrection at the U.S. Capitol by some supporters of President Trump, the FBI has said there could be armed protests in D.C. and in all 50 state capitols in the run-up to President-elect Joe Biden's inauguration Wednesday.

11 hours ago - Politics & Policy

The new Washington

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

The Axios subject-matter experts brief you on the incoming administration's plans and team.

Rep. Lou Correa tests positive for COVID-19

Lou Correa. Photo: Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images

Rep. Lou Correa (D-Calif.) announced on Saturday that he has tested positive for the coronavirus.

Why it matters: Correa is the latest Democratic lawmaker to share his positive test results after last week's deadly Capitol riot. Correa did not shelter in the designated safe zone with his congressional colleagues during the siege, per a spokesperson, instead staying outside to help Capitol Police.