Illustration: Rebecca Zisser/Axios

The Fed's "dovish lite" rate hike today is a key moment in chairman Jerome Powell's balancing act. This interest rate increase was expected, protests from President Trump notwithstanding, because one had been telegraphed for months and the Fed rarely surprises.

Why it matters: The Fed signaled today two more hikes next year instead of three while reiterating that "risks to the economic outlook are roughly balanced," but for the first time noted it will "monitor global economic and financial developments and assess their implications for the economic outlook."

Between the lines: Having worked as an investment banker at Dillon Read & Co. and The Carlyle Group, Powell is much closer to the markets than his predecessors. And Wall Street has been clamoring for the Fed to slow down.

  • That's why there was such an outsized reaction to his November statement that U.S. interest rates were now "just below" rather than "a long way" from neutral. It was a sign that Powell heard the so-called Dow vigilantes and was ready to delay further hikes in 2019 should the equity market downturn persist.

Powell learned from former Fed chairs Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen, who both faced hostility from Congress and the public, to keep a low profile.

  • He's done everything he can to avoid a confrontation with Trump. He started by effusively praising the economy after taking over as chair and has gone out of his way to avoid commenting on Trump and congressional Republicans' expansionary fiscal policy, or the federal deficit.

He's also made it a major point to woo Congress, with 60 personal visits and one-on-one phone calls to lawmakers, according to his most recent public calendars from February to August.

"He wants as strong a political base as he possibly can, and he also wants to not be blamed for stuff. The way you don’t get blamed for stuff is to not make promises about your future actions."
— Vincent Reinhart, a former Fed official and now chief economist at Standish, a division of BNY Mellon

What's next: Don't expect Powell to kowtow to Trump's tweets, but the awful performance of the stock market in December has to have changed his thinking somewhat. His strategy appears to be endearing himself and the U.S. central bank to Wall Street and Capitol Hill.

  • The futures market sees zero rate hikes in 2019, ignoring the Fed's previous dot plot, which showed three rate hikes next year.

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Louisville officer: "Breonna Taylor would be alive" if we had served no-knock warrant

Breonna Taylor memorial in Louisville. Photo: Brandon Bell/Getty Images

Sgt. Jonathan Mattingly, the Louisville officer who led the botched police raid that caused the death of Breonna Taylor, said the No. 1 thing he wishes he had done differently is either served a "no-knock" warrant or given five to 10 seconds before entering the apartment: "Breonna Taylor would be alive, 100 percent."

Driving the news: Mattingly, who spoke to ABC News and Louisville's Courier Journal for his public interview, was shot in the leg in the initial moments of the March 13 raid. Mattingly did not face any charges after Kentucky Attorney General Daniel Cameron said he and another officer were "justified" in returning fire to protect themselves against Taylor's boyfriend.

U.S. vs. Google — the siege begins

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

The Justice Department fired the starter pistol on what's likely to be a years-long legal siege of Big Tech by the U.S. government when it filed a major antitrust suit Tuesday against Google.

The big picture: Once a generation, it seems, federal regulators decide to take on a dominant tech company. Two decades ago, Microsoft was the target; two decades before that, IBM.

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Why the stimulus delay isn't a crisis (yet)

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

If the impasse between House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and the White House on a new stimulus deal is supposed to be a crisis, you wouldn't know it from the stock market, where prices continue to rise.

  • That's been in no small part because U.S. economic data has held up remarkably well in recent months thanks to the $2 trillion CARES Act and Americans' unusual ability to save during the crisis.