Photo: Brooks Kraft/ Getty Images

While Wall Street consensus is calling for the Fed to remain on hold through December 2020, strategists at Credit Suisse warn the U.S. central bank may not even be on hold through the end of 2019.

The big picture: They're expecting the Fed to begin its fourth round of quantitative easing before the end of the year in an effort to settle problems in the repo market.

Why it matters: The Bank for International Settlements concluded recently that the spike in rates seen in the repo market in September was due to a structural problem rather than a one-off issue. Consensus is growing that the Fed's daily cash injections are not enough.

  • Experts also warned earlier this year that the repo market issues were a sign of bigger trouble brewing in the broader market and could even cause a major selloff for U.S. stocks.

What they're saying: “The Fed’s liquidity operations have not been sufficient to relax the constraints banks will face in the upcoming year-end turn,” Zoltan Pozsar, managing director for investment strategy and research at Credit Suisse, said in the note.

  • Pozsar argued in his note that a full-on imposition of quantitative easing will be needed as the end of the year is a time when the repo market typically sees low liquidity.

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Updated 29 mins ago - Politics & Policy

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

  1. Global: Total confirmed cases as of 3 a.m. ET: 33,642,602 — Total deaths: 1,007,769 — Total recoveries: 23,387,825Map.
  2. U.S.: Total confirmed cases as of 3 a.m. ET: 7,191,061 — Total deaths: 205,998 — Total recoveries: 2,813,305 — Total tests: 103,155,189Map.
  3. Health: Americans won't take Trump's word on the vaccine, Axios-Ipsos poll finds.
  4. Politics: 7 former FDA commissioners say Trump is undermining agency's credibility
  5. States: NYC's coronavirus positivity rate spikes to highest since June.
  6. Sports: Tennessee Titans close facility amid NFL's first coronavirus outbreak.
  7. World: U.K. beats previous record for new coronavirus cases.
  8. Work: United States of burnout — Asian American unemployment spikes amid pandemic

In photos: Deadly wildfires devastate California's wine country

The Shady Fire ravages a home as it approaches Santa Rosa in Napa County, California, on Sept. 28. The blaze is part of the massive Glass Fire Complex, which has razed 46,600 acres at 2% containment. Photo: Samuel Corum/Agence France-Presse/AFP via Getty Images

Some 18,700 firefighters are battling 27 major blazes across California, including in the heart of the wine country, where one mega-blaze claimed the lives of three people and forced thousands of others to evacuate this week.

The big picture: 8,155 wildfires have burned across a record 3.86 million acres, killing 26 people and razing almost 7,900 structures in California this year, per Cal Fire. Just like the deadly blazes of 2017, the wine country has become a wildfires epicenter. Gov. Gavin Newsom has declared a state of emergency in Napa, Sonoma, and Shasta counties.

Mike Allen, author of AM
Updated 3 hours ago - Politics & Policy

The first Trump v. Biden presidential debate was a hot mess

Photos: Jim Watson and Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images

This debate was like the country: Everybody’s talking. Nobody’s listening. Nothing is learned. It’s a mess.

  • We were told President Trump would be savage. Turned out, that was a gross understatement. Even the moderator, Fox News' Chris Wallace, got bulldozed.

Why it matters: Honestly, who the hell knows?