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Data: BloombergNEF; Chart: Sara Wise/Axios

A new analysis finds the outlook for electric vehicle deployment is "getting much brighter," but it's off pace for meeting aggressive midcentury targets for cutting carbon emissions from transportation.

Why it matters: The research firm BloombergNEF provides closely watched analyses on the evolution of the battery-electric and fuel cell sector — not only passenger cars but also buses, heavy trucks and more.

The big picture: The BloombergNEF analysts project that sales of electric passenger vehicles will rise from 3.1 million in 2020 to 14 million annually in 2025.

  • That's about 16% of new car sales in 2025, though there's lots of variation by country.
  • In China, the world's largest market, they see electric vehicles reaching 25% of new passenger vehicle sales in 2025, while it's nearly 40% in Germany.

What's next: After 2025, they break the analysis into two segments.

  • The "economic transition scenario" estimates market evolution under existing policies at the time. You can see the passenger car portion above.
  • A new "net zero scenario" models what's needed to meet the type of midcentury targets consistent with fully decarbonizing the vehicle sector.

Where it stands: It's a mixed picture. Two- and three-wheeled vehicles and buses are almost on track for the net-zero pathway.

  • The trajectory for passenger cars is also positive but insufficient. Their "economic transition scenario" (ETS) sees zero-emissions cars at 34% of global sales in 203. They would need to be at 60% in the decarbonization path.
  • Projected medium- and heavy-trucks deployment, meanwhile, is nowhere near what's needed, BloombergNEF said. "By 2040, zero-emission medium and heavy commercial vehicles are 95% of sales in our Net Zero Scenario, but just 30% in the ETS," they note.

Threat level: "Despite the rapid rise in EV adoption, road transport is still not on track for carbon neutrality by 2050 and aggressive action from policymakers will be needed, especially on heavier vehicles," BloombergNEF finds.

Go deeper: Read the full report

Go deeper

NZ report recommends drastic methane emissions cuts to meet climate goals

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern during a May news conference in Queenstown, New Zealand. Photo: Joe Allison/Getty Images

New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said in a speech Wednesday that the climate crisis was a matter of "life or death," as a blueprint for meeting her government's ambitious green targets was unveiled.

Driving the news: The Climate Commission, an independent body advising the government, outlines in its report what the country needs to do to meet its target for 2050 of producing zero carbon emissions — including reducing biogenic methane emissions by 24% to 47%, with no new household gas connections by 2025.

Ben Geman, author of Generate
Jun 8, 2021 - Energy & Environment

White House vows new moves to shore up battery supply chain

Illustration: Shoshana Gordon/Axios

The White House is pledging a multi-agency push to spur more U.S. battery manufacturing and sustainable mining — both domestically and abroad — of raw materials used in battery tech.

Why it matters: The administration wants to speed U.S. market growth of electric cars and grid storage, but a global scramble for batteries and materials poses hurdles for companies and governments alike.

Updated 9 mins ago - Health

White House acknowledges U.S. will miss July 4 vaccination goal

Fireworks in New York City to celebrate the state reaching a 70% vaccination rate. Photo: Liao Pan/China News Service via Getty Images

The Biden administration acknowledged on Tuesday that it will likely miss its goal of vaccinating 70% of U.S. adults with at least one dose by July 4.

Why it matters: Despite falling short of the goal, the White House still believes most Americans will be safe to fully celebrate Independence Day, as COVID-19 cases and deaths remain at low levels throughout much of the country.

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