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Data: BloombergNEF; Chart: Sara Wise/Axios

A new analysis finds the outlook for electric vehicle deployment is "getting much brighter," but it's off pace for meeting aggressive midcentury targets for cutting carbon emissions from transportation.

Why it matters: The research firm BloombergNEF provides closely watched analyses on the evolution of the battery-electric and fuel cell sector — not only passenger cars but also buses, heavy trucks and more.

The big picture: The BloombergNEF analysts project that sales of electric passenger vehicles will rise from 3.1 million in 2020 to 14 million annually in 2025.

  • That's about 16% of new car sales in 2025, though there's lots of variation by country.
  • In China, the world's largest market, they see electric vehicles reaching 25% of new passenger vehicle sales in 2025, while it's nearly 40% in Germany.

What's next: After 2025, they break the analysis into two segments.

  • The "economic transition scenario" estimates market evolution under existing policies at the time. You can see the passenger car portion above.
  • A new "net zero scenario" models what's needed to meet the type of midcentury targets consistent with fully decarbonizing the vehicle sector.

Where it stands: It's a mixed picture. Two- and three-wheeled vehicles and buses are almost on track for the net-zero pathway.

  • The trajectory for passenger cars is also positive but insufficient. Their "economic transition scenario" (ETS) sees zero-emissions cars at 34% of global sales in 203. They would need to be at 60% in the decarbonization path.
  • Projected medium- and heavy-trucks deployment, meanwhile, is nowhere near what's needed, BloombergNEF said. "By 2040, zero-emission medium and heavy commercial vehicles are 95% of sales in our Net Zero Scenario, but just 30% in the ETS," they note.

Threat level: "Despite the rapid rise in EV adoption, road transport is still not on track for carbon neutrality by 2050 and aggressive action from policymakers will be needed, especially on heavier vehicles," BloombergNEF finds.

Go deeper: Read the full report

Go deeper

Auto shows are back but they aren't just about cars any more

Hildegard Müller, president of VDA, organizer of the 2021 IAA auto show in Munich. Photo: Christof Stache/AFP

Auto shows are coming back, but they don't just feature pretty cars: Now they also have hands-on experiences showcasing innovative climate-friendly technologies and new modes of mobility.

Why it matters: Big, international auto shows have been dying for years, and the coronavirus pandemic looked like it might be the final straw. Instead, they're trying to stay relevant by reinventing themselves to reflect an industry undergoing historic change.

Chris Cuomo accuser: On-air "hypocrisy" spurred report

Journalist Chris Cuomo. Photo: Gilbert Carrasquillo/GC Images

A woman who accused fired CNN journalist Chris Cuomo of sexual misconduct said Sunday she decided to come forward after learning of his comments about women who made similar accusations about his brother. He denies her allegations.

Why it matters: Her attorney Debra Katz said in a statement that she heard "the hypocrisy" of his on-air words about his brother, former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, and was "disgusted by his efforts to try to discredit these women," so "retained counsel to report his serious sexual misconduct against her to CNN."

Updated 4 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Omicron dashboard

Illustration: Shoshana Gordon/Axios

  1. Health: CDC director says number of U.S. Omicron cases "likely to rise" — Two years of COVID-19 — Prior coronavirus infections may not protect well against Omicron.
  2. Vaccines: Data demonstrates most-vaccinated counties less vulnerable to worst of COVID — Omicron adds urgency to vaccinating world — Omicron fuels the case for COVID boosters.
  3. Politics: Nevada to impose insurance surcharge on unvaccinated state workers — New Jersey GOP lawmakers defy statehouse COVID policy — Oklahoma sues Biden administration over Pentagon vaccine mandate.
  4. World: Vaccine mandates lose steam in the U.S. while Europe doubles downWHO: Delta health measures help fight Omicron — COVID cases surge in South Africa in sign Omicron wave is coming.
  5. Variant tracker: Where different strains are spreading.

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