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Expand chart
Data: IEA; Chart: Axios Visuals

International Energy Agency modeling underscores the kind of sweeping energy transformations needed in the relatively near future to meet the Paris Agreement's temperature goals.

The big picture: The chart above via IEA's World Energy Outlook last October shows changes in demand for various fuel sources in three IEA scenarios.

  • The first shows its estimates under nations' current and announced policies at the time, which bring warming well in excess of the targets.
  • The second two are pathways for keeping the very ambitious 1.5 °C target in sight to varying degrees by reaching net-zero emissions in 3-5 decades (but it's complicated and you can read more about them here).

Why it matters: Keeping the Paris targets in sight requires huge changes this decade. The chart shows greatly accelerated renewables deployment, a steep drop in coal use and other big shifts.

  • IEA's hardly alone in the long-term scenario business and any multidecade look-ahead is stuffed with uncertainties.
  • But what's common among scenarios for holding warming significantly in check is a rapid shift away from fossil fuels.

Go deeper: World must sharply cut emissions by 2030 to meet Paris climate goals

Go deeper

The U.S. credibility chasm on climate change

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

The biggest hurdle for President Biden in winning new emissions reduction commitments at this week's White House summit is America's on-again, off-again history of climate change efforts.

Why it matters: The global community is off course to meet the temperature targets contained in the Paris Climate Agreement. The White House wants the summit Thursday and Friday to begin to change that.

U.S. and China agree to take joint climate action

US Special Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry waves as he arrives at the Elysee Presidential Palace on March 10, 2021 in Paris. Photo: Chesnot/Getty Images

Despite an increasingly tense relationship, the U.S. and China agreed Saturday to work together to tackle global climate change, including by "raising ambition" for emissions cuts during the 2020s — a key goal of the Biden administration.

Why it matters: The joint communique released Saturday evening commits the world's two largest emitters of greenhouse gases to work together to keep the most ambitious temperature target contained in the Paris Climate Agreement viable by potentially taking additional emissions cuts prior to 2030.

Ina Fried, author of Login
56 mins ago - Technology

Intel CEO sees making own chips as a matter of national security

Pat Gelsinger. Photo: Axios on HBO

Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger is putting the pressure on the U.S. government to help subsidize chip manufacturing, insisting the current reliance on plants in Taiwan and Korea as "geopolitically unstable."

Why it matters: There is bipartisan support for funding the domestic semiconductor industry, but Congress has yet to sign the check. The Senate has passed the CHIPS Act that includes $52 billion in semiconductor investment, but it has yet to pass the House.