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Roughly two-thirds of buses worldwide will be electrified by 2040, according to the latest research from BloombergNEF, while sales of electric cars and light-duty commercial vehicles are on track to be more than 50% by then too.

Expand chart
Data: BloombergNEF; Chart: Axios Visuals

What they’re saying: Colin McKerracher, head of advanced transport for BNEF, says in a statement: "We see a real possibility that global sales of conventional passenger cars have already passed their peak."

Yes, but: BNEF tends to be on the more aggressive side with its forecasts. This one also makes some assumptions that are uncertain with President Trump in office and Republicans controlling at least one chamber of Congress.

  • The forecasts assume a federal subsidy remains intact and that California retains its legal right to issue stricter standards, which Trump is attempting to do away with while rolling back federal efficiency standards (BNEF doesn’t assume those standards are met).

The big picture: China is dominating in electric cars — like it is in nearly all energy technologies. “China's electric car market is growing much faster than electric vehicle sales in Europe, the United States, Japan and the rest of the world combined,” Jack Barkenbus, a visiting scholar at Vanderbilt University, writes in The Conversation.

Go deeper

3 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Trump to issue at least 100 pardons and commutations before leaving office

Photo: Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images

President Trump plans to issue at least 100 pardons and commutations on his final full day in office Tuesday, sources familiar with the matter told Axios.

Why it matters: This is a continuation of the president's controversial December spree that saw full pardons granted to more than two dozen people — including former Trump campaign chair Paul Manafort, longtime associate Roger Stone and Charles Kushner, the father of Trump's senior adviser and son-in-law, Jared Kushner.

  • The pardons set to be issued before Trump exits the White House will be a mix of criminal justice ones and pardons for people connected to the president, the sources said.
  • CNN first reported this news.

Go deeper: Convicts turn to D.C. fixers for Trump pardons

Schumer's m(aj)ority checklist

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer. Photo: Tasos Katopodis/Getty Images

Capitalizing on the Georgia runoffs, achieving a 50-50 Senate and launching an impeachment trial are weighty to-dos for getting Joe Biden's administration up and running on Day One.

What to watch: A blend of ceremonies, hearings and legal timelines will come into play on Tuesday and Wednesday so Chuck Schumer can actually claim the Senate majority and propel the new president's agenda.

The dark new reality in Congress

National Guard troops keep watch at security fencing. Photo: Kent Nishimura/Los Angeles Times via Getty Images

This is how bad things are for elected officials and others working in a post-insurrection Congress:

  • Rep. Norma Torres (D-Calif.) said she had a panic attack while grocery shopping back home.
  • Rep. Jim McGovern (D-Mass.) said police may also have to be at his constituent meetings.
  • Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-Ill.) told a podcaster he brought a gun to his office on Capitol Hill on Jan. 6 because he anticipated trouble with the proceedings that day.