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Roughly two-thirds of buses worldwide will be electrified by 2040, according to the latest research from BloombergNEF, while sales of electric cars and light-duty commercial vehicles are on track to be more than 50% by then too.

Expand chart
Data: BloombergNEF; Chart: Axios Visuals

What they’re saying: Colin McKerracher, head of advanced transport for BNEF, says in a statement: "We see a real possibility that global sales of conventional passenger cars have already passed their peak."

Yes, but: BNEF tends to be on the more aggressive side with its forecasts. This one also makes some assumptions that are uncertain with President Trump in office and Republicans controlling at least one chamber of Congress.

  • The forecasts assume a federal subsidy remains intact and that California retains its legal right to issue stricter standards, which Trump is attempting to do away with while rolling back federal efficiency standards (BNEF doesn’t assume those standards are met).

The big picture: China is dominating in electric cars — like it is in nearly all energy technologies. “China's electric car market is growing much faster than electric vehicle sales in Europe, the United States, Japan and the rest of the world combined,” Jack Barkenbus, a visiting scholar at Vanderbilt University, writes in The Conversation.

Go deeper

Thousands of trees near giant sequoia groves to be removed after fires

A firefighter looks up at a giant sequoia tree after fire burned through the Sequoia National Forest near California Hot Springs, California, on Sept. 23. Photo: Patrick T. Fallon/AFP via Getty Images

"Upwards of" 10,000 trees near giant sequoia groves have been "weakened by drought, disease, age, and/or fire" and must be removed in the wake of California's wildfires, the Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks announced.

Why it matters: The damage to these trees, considered "national treasures," and work to remove them means a nearby key highway must remain closed to visitors as they have "the potential to strike people, cars, other structures, or create barriers to emergency response services," per a statement from the national parks.

Obama stumps for McAuliffe, urges Virginians not "to go back to the chaos"

Photo: Win McNamee/Getty Images

Former President Barack Obama framed a Nov. 2 gubernatorial race as a bellwether for the Democratic Party and the country, telling a crowd at a campaign event for Terry McAuliffe on Saturday that "I believe you, right here in Virginia, are going to show the rest of the country and the world that we're not going to indulge in our worst instincts."

Why it matters: With just over a week to go before Election Day in the Commonwealth, McAuliffe is bringing out the big guns. The 44th president appeared on the campus of Virginia Commonwealth University to urge supporters to get to the polls.

Bryan Walsh, author of Future
5 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Axios AM Deep Dive: America’s murder surge

Photo illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios. Photo: Erik McGregor/LightRocket via Getty Images

Homicides rose at the fastest rate in at least six decades last year. This Axios AM Deep Dive, led by Future correspondent Bryan Walsh, looks at the state of gun crime.