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Reproduced from Rhodium Group; Note: Low and high estimates based on COVID-19 trajectory and recovery; Chart: Axios Visuals

Electric trucks have the potential to displace enough oil to make a "significant dent" in transportation sector CO2 emissions, per a Rhodium Group analysis.

Why it matters: There's lots of buzz — and a lot of money — around electric trucks these days.

  • It estimates the long-term effects of a recent 15-state nonbinding pact to bolster the use of zero-emissions heavy trucks and other medium- and heavy-duty vehicles.
  • California, one of the states, also recently approved mandatory regulations on greatly increasing zero-emissions truck sales between 2024 and 2045.
  • The study also explores the impact if these state efforts were transformed into a nationwide mandate, which would mean more than half the U.S. medium- and heavy-duty fleet would be electric by 2045.

What they found: "If the [15-state] MOU were expanded nationally, the impact would increase six-fold. By 2035, cumulative oil demand would fall by 806 to 843 million barrels, expanding to 4.6 to 4.9 billion barrels by 2045," Rhodium finds.

  • "The long-term effect of expanding California’s approach nationally would reduce oil consumption in 2045 by 16 to 17%," the Aug. 13 analysis notes.

What we're watching: How a potential Joe Biden administration would seek to curb emissions from big trucks.

  • His plan calls eventually having 100% of medium-duty vehicle sales come from electric models, and "annual improvements" in the heavy-duty sector.
  • The analysis also comes as more electric trucks are coming into the market.

Go deeper: States team up in push for electric heavy vehicles

Go deeper

GM abandons Trump lawsuit against California over emissions standards

General Motors CEO Mary Barra speaks at GM headquarters June 12, 2018 in Detroit, MI. Photo: Bill Pugliano/Getty Images

General Motors will pull out of any legal efforts that seek to strip California of its right to set its own clean-air standards, GM CEO Mary Barra said in a letter Monday to environmental groups, per AP.

Driving the news: Barra said the company, which is developing a new battery chemistry that will reduce the costs of electric-vehicle, agrees with President-elect Joe Biden’s plan to expand the use of electric vehicles, AP reported.

2 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Beto not even best Dem against Abbott

Beto O'Rourke speaks at a rally at the Texas State Capitol in June. Photo: Sergio Flores/Getty Images

Actor Matthew McConaughey’s nine-point lead in a theoretical matchup against Greg Abbott shows just how vulnerable the hard-right Texas governor could be in a general election.

Why it matters: Abbott has won conservative accolades for his abortion, mask and vaccine bans. Axios reported Sunday that former Rep. Beto O’Rourke is preparing to announce a gubernatorial challenge — but a recent poll shows he’s not even the most popular Democrat in the state.

2 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Delayed maps upend midterm campaigns

Illustration: Shoshana Gordon/Axios

Midterm candidates are panicking about how the congressional maps will ultimately be drawn, with several strategists telling Axios campaigns are in limbo.

Why it matters: Candidates are unsure if the district they're targeting will remain intact or be reshaped by the process. The uncertainty is especially vexing to Democrats, who are vying to maintain their narrow margin in the House.