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Photo: Florian Gaertner/Phototek via Getty Images

By 2040, 80% of city buses worldwide will be electric, according to a just-released report by the consultancy Bloomberg New Energy Finance.

The big picture: China dominates the market right now and accounting for 99% of the market last year, according to BNEF. But EV bus adoption is expected to accelerate significantly in Europe and elsewhere by 2040.

  • It's BNEF's first long-term forecast of electrification of city bus fleets.
  • It's a deployment surge enabled by total ownership costs that will be generally more attractive than conventional diesel starting next year, and economics that will continue getting better.

One level deeper: The new bus projection is part of their annual long-term forecast on electric vehicles. The new report's top line is similar to last year's — BNEF forecasts that 55% of new passenger vehicle sales will be EVs in 2040, similar to last year's 54% figure.

  • That equates to light-duty vehicle sales worldwide going from one million in 2017 to 60 million in 2040.
  • Supply chain risk: Tight supplies of cobalt, a key battery material, is a risk to EV sales over the next five to seven years.
  • But longer term, "we expect high prices to bring on new supply and accelerate the adoption of new battery chemistries," BNEF said.

The big picture: BNEF expects that the transition to electric cars and buses will add 6% to global electricity demand in 2040. However, electrification is projected to displace 7.3 million barrels a day of transport fuel that year.

Go deeper

25 mins ago - World

Melbourne, "world's most locked-down city," to lift stay-at-home orders

Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews during a news conference in Melbourne, Australia, on Sunday. Photo: Quinn Rooney/Getty Images

Melbourne's stay-at-home orders will end five days earlier than planned, officials in Australia's second-biggest city announced Sunday.

Why it matters: The capital of the state of Victoria has had six lockdowns totaling 262 days since March last year. That means Melbourne's spent longer under lockdowns than "any other city in the world" during the pandemic, Reuters notes.

Updated 2 hours ago - World

Up to 17 U.S. missionaries kidnapped in Haiti

Haitian soldiers guard the public prosecutor's office in Port-au-Prince earlier this month. Photo: Richard Pierrin/AFP via Getty Images

Children were among up to 17 American Christian missionaries and their relatives kidnapped by a gang in Haiti on Saturday, the New York Times first reported.

Details: The missionaries had just left an orphanage and were traveling by bus to the airport to "drop off some members" when the gang abducted them in Port-au-Prince, Haitian security officials said, per the NYT.

Venezuela suspends talks with opposition after Maduro ally extradited to U.S.

Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in Caracas, Venezuela, in June. Photo: Gaby Oraa/Bloomberg via Getty Images

A key ally of Venezuela's President Nicolás Maduro was extradited from Cape Verde to the U.S. Saturday to face money laundering charges in Florida, Bloomberg first reported.

Why it matters: Venezuela's government called off negotiations with opposition officials that were scheduled for Sunday in Mexico in response to the extradition of Alex Saab, a Colombian businessman and financial fixer for Maduro. Security forces placed six U.S. oil executives under house arrest later Saturday, per AP.