Sign up for our daily briefing

Make your busy days simpler with Axios AM/PM. Catch up on what's new and why it matters in just 5 minutes.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Catch up on the day's biggest business stories

Subscribe to Axios Closer for insights into the day’s business news and trends and why they matter

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Stay on top of the latest market trends

Subscribe to Axios Markets for the latest market trends and economic insights. Sign up for free.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Sports news worthy of your time

Binge on the stats and stories that drive the sports world with Axios Sports. Sign up for free.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Tech news worthy of your time

Get our smart take on technology from the Valley and D.C. with Axios Login. Sign up for free.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Get the inside stories

Get an insider's guide to the new White House with Axios Sneak Peek. Sign up for free.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday

Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Denver news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Denver

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Des Moines news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Des Moines

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Twin Cities news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Twin Cities

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Tampa Bay news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Tampa Bay

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Charlotte news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Charlotte

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Sign up for Axios NW Arkansas

Stay up-to-date on the most important and interesting stories affecting NW Arkansas, authored by local reporters

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

Increased working from home and use of e-commerce will be "powerful and enduring" in the U.S. — potentially enough to reduce auto miles traveled by up to 9% going forward, according to a new KPMG analysis.

Why it matters: The behavioral changes that stick around once the coronavirus crisis passes will affect power use, driving levels and oil demand — with repercussions for all those industries.

  • The KPMG report takes a stab at specifically quantifying the potential long-term driving effects in the U.S., and what it means for the auto sector.

The big picture: While driving has recovered a lot from the depths of the pandemic, KPMG analysts say that going forward, U.S. vehicle miles traveled could drop by a range of 140 billion to 270 billion miles per year.

  • The consultancy estimates that car ownership also could fall, from 1.97 to 1.87 vehicles per household.
  • "That may not sound like much, but it could translate into 7 million to 14 million fewer vehicles on U.S. roads," the report notes.

What's next: That change would cut into car sales, but the stickiness of the pandemic lifestyle could also shake up the industry in other ways by increasing demand for delivery vehicles.

  • "Both incumbent automakers and startups are working on innovative delivery-van designs, new power-train systems, and autonomous capabilities," they note.

Quick take: Look for intensifying competition in the electric delivery vehicle market, where several startups — notably Rivian, which has a huge deal with Amazon — and legacy players are in the mix.

The intrigue: The ultimate effects of the pandemic on auto and plane travel could hasten the peak of global oil demand, and some analysts think it may have already happened.

  • "Energy demand and certainly mobility demand will be lower even when this crisis more or less [is] behind us. Will it mean that it will never recover? It’s probably too early to say," Royal Dutch Shell CEO Ben van Beurden tells IHS Markit's Dan Yergin in an interview posted this week.

Yes, but: KPMG energy analyst Regina Mayor, in an email exchange, cautions against assuming that our new work and driving habits on their own will have a major long-term effect on motor fuel use.

  • She notes variables like how much shopping trip reductions are offset by delivery truck miles, the potential for people to move out of urban areas, and avoidance of public transit and planes in favor of cars.

My thought bubble: It's possible to see a scenario where oil demand has peaked, but it would mean several forces — not just more remote work and shopping — moving in the same direction.

  • Others include changes in trade and shipping patterns as countries look to localize supply chains, as well as economic recovery packages steering lots of resources into efficiency, electric vehicles and mass transit, and the jury's still out there.

Go deeper

Oct 23, 2020 - Economy & Business

Driverless car companies are getting back on track after a COVID-19 standstill

Ford's fourth-generation AV. Photo: Ford

Two weeks after Waymo opened up its driverless taxi service to the public in Phoenix, other autonomous vehicle developers are reporting progress, too.

Why it matters: The pandemic temporarily suspended on-road testing at many AV companies, but the past week shows they've been hard at work.

Ben Geman, author of Generate
Oct 23, 2020 - Energy & Environment

Biden looks to stem oil "transition" furor amid GOP attacks

Former Vice President Joe Biden. ANGELA WEISS / Getty Images

Joe Biden's campaign is looking to blunt attacks in response to his comments in Thursday night's debate about a "transition from the oil industry," as Republicans look to make the remarks a liability in the closing days of the race.

Driving the news: Biden campaign spokesperson Bill Russo, in comments circulated to reporters Friday afternoon, said the former VP "would not get rid of fossil fuels," but wants to end subsidies.

5 mins ago - Politics & Policy

First look: The LCV's $4M ad buy

A screenshot from a new League of Conservation Voters ad supporting Rep. Stephanie Murphy.

The League of Conservation Voters and Climate Power are aiming another $4 million worth of ads at centrist House Democrats, urging them to support the climate provisions in President Biden’s $3.5 trillion budget reconciliation package, Axios has learned.

Why it matters: Progressive groups are trying to counter the onslaught of conservative money pouring into swing districts. Both sides are trying to define Biden’s Build Back Better Agenda and pressure lawmakers to support — or oppose — the legislation scheduled for a vote in the House this week.