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Photo: Spencer Platt/Getty Images

The International Energy Agency said Wednesday that revived U.S. sanctions against Iran and the ongoing collapse of Venezuela's output could jolt the global market.

Why it matters: The new edition of their closely watched report contains its first extended comment since the White House decision to bail on the Iran nuclear deal — noting that the decision has "switched the focus of oil market analysis from the fundamentals to geopolitics."

  • "The potential double supply shortfall represented by Iran and Venezuela could present a major challenge for producers to fend off sharp price rises and fill the gap, not just in terms of the number of barrels but also in terms of oil quality," states the latest monthly oil market report.

But, but, but: IEA suggests that while crude oil demand growth remains strong as the global economy is doing well, price increases and other forces could take a toll on the world's petro-thirst.

  • Already, the new report shaves their 2018 forecast for global demand growth from 1.5 million barrels per day over last year down to 1.4 million.
  • [T]he fact is that crude oil prices have risen by nearly 75% since June 2017. It would be extraordinary if such a large jump did not affect demand growth, especially as end-user subsidies have been reduced or cut in several emerging economies in recent years," IEA says.

Known unknowns: IEA forecasters — they're just like us.

  • They don't know, because nobody knows, how many barrels of Iranian 2.4 million b/d of crude exports that the revived sanctions, which will take full effect in 180 days, will ultimately pull off the market.
  • Analysts' estimates vary from a negligible effect all the way to a million barrels per day or a bit more. IEA's report notes "understandable uncertainty" in these early days.

Go deeper: Reuters has a detailed look at the report here.

Go deeper

2021 economy boomed at fastest rate in 37 years

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

The U.S. economy surged ahead with a 6.9% annual growth rate in the final months of 2021 and achieved the strongest growth over an entire calendar year since 1984.

Driving the news: New GDP numbers from the Commerce Department show a remarkable acceleration in economic activity, much faster than the 5.3% growth rate analysts expected.

The Fed isn't the only problem investors are worried about

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

The Federal Reserve will be raising rates, just as the economy is slowing. The markets hate that.

Why it matters: The ugly start to the stock trading year doesn't just reflect Fed-induced agita — investors are also worried about a growth slowdown.

4 hours ago - Health

White House says Obamacare sign-ups hit record

Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra speaking in the White House in December 2021. Photo: Jim Watson/AFP via Getty Images

The White House said Thursday that a record 14.5 million Americans have signed up for health insurance through Obamacare marketplaces since Nov. 1, including more than 10 million enrollments through HealthCare.gov.

Why it matters: Last year's stimulus bill contained substantial investments in the program, including increased subsidies for people who don't receive health insurance from an employer or through Medicare or Medicaid.