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Photo: Spencer Platt/Getty Images

The International Energy Agency said Wednesday that revived U.S. sanctions against Iran and the ongoing collapse of Venezuela's output could jolt the global market.

Why it matters: The new edition of their closely watched report contains its first extended comment since the White House decision to bail on the Iran nuclear deal — noting that the decision has "switched the focus of oil market analysis from the fundamentals to geopolitics."

  • "The potential double supply shortfall represented by Iran and Venezuela could present a major challenge for producers to fend off sharp price rises and fill the gap, not just in terms of the number of barrels but also in terms of oil quality," states the latest monthly oil market report.

But, but, but: IEA suggests that while crude oil demand growth remains strong as the global economy is doing well, price increases and other forces could take a toll on the world's petro-thirst.

  • Already, the new report shaves their 2018 forecast for global demand growth from 1.5 million barrels per day over last year down to 1.4 million.
  • [T]he fact is that crude oil prices have risen by nearly 75% since June 2017. It would be extraordinary if such a large jump did not affect demand growth, especially as end-user subsidies have been reduced or cut in several emerging economies in recent years," IEA says.

Known unknowns: IEA forecasters — they're just like us.

  • They don't know, because nobody knows, how many barrels of Iranian 2.4 million b/d of crude exports that the revived sanctions, which will take full effect in 180 days, will ultimately pull off the market.
  • Analysts' estimates vary from a negligible effect all the way to a million barrels per day or a bit more. IEA's report notes "understandable uncertainty" in these early days.

Go deeper: Reuters has a detailed look at the report here.

Go deeper

Updated 3 hours ago - World

Islamic State claims responsibility for deadly bombing in southern Afghanistan

The mosque after the explosion in southern Kandahar province on Oct. 15. Photo: Murteza Khaliqi/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

The Islamic State group claimed responsibility for a massive blast that tore through a crowded Shiite mosque in the southern Afghan city of Kandahar on Friday, killing at least 47 people and injuring dozens more, AP reports.

Why it matters: Friday's attack was the deadliest to strike Afghanistan since the U.S. withdrew its troops from the region and is the second major attack on a Shiite mosque in a week, underscoring the Taliban's growing security threat from other militant groups.

New wave of strikes will test worker power

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

Thousands of John Deere workers hit the picket line this week after the union smacked down a new worker contract from the farm and equipment maker.

Why it matters: There’s a wave of worker angst spreading across the country. They wield new power that’s come with a historic worker shortage.

Bryan Walsh, author of Future
5 hours ago - Technology

The smart city comes of age

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

Better sensors, more intelligent AI, and the coming wave of 5G wireless could finally fulfill the promise of the smart city.

Why it matters: How we organize, run and power our cities will be increasingly important in the years ahead, as urbanization expands and the damaging effects of climate change compound.