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Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

The latest IEA analysis of oil markets provides a window into how long it will take for life to return to normal despite the arrival of COVID-19 vaccines.

Driving the news: This morning the agency slightly trimmed its 2021 oil demand outlook even further.

  • Its monthly report now sees oil consumption next year climbing 5.7 million barrels per day compared to 2020 levels.
  • That's a lot! But consider that demand plunged by an unprecedented 8.8 million barrels per day this year, per their latest data.

The big picture: The biggest reason 2021 demand will still be way lower than 2019 has to do with air travel remaining way below pre-pandemic levels. But more broadly, the year-to-year comparison doesn't capture the slow ramp up.

Why it matters: Oil supply and demand data are always closely watched by traders, but in the pandemic era, they're also a proxy for the status of restrictions and the return to old ways — or lack thereof.

What they're saying: "[I]t will be several months before we reach a critical mass of vaccinated, economically active people and thus see an impact on oil demand," the agency said.Here's more on why it expects 2021 oil consumption to recover just two-thirds of the amount lost in 2020:

  • Growth in road fuel will be strong and almost reach 2019 levels. Jet fuel comes back more slowly as restrictions remain until vaccines are widely available.
  • Also, older people will remain cautious, while the economic hit means less money to spend on air travel overall, and business travel will be hit by cost-cutting and online meetings.

Go deeper

Jan 27, 2021 - Technology

Facebook stock whipsaws amid ad targeting concerns

Photo Illustration by Igor Golovniov/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images

Facebook's stock showed volatility in after-hours trading Wednesday, despite adding users and beating on top and bottom lines.

Why it matters: Investors seem spooked by proposed changes to user data collection by Apple that would impact Facebook's ad business, in addition to perennial threats of new federal privacy regulations.

Ina Fried, author of Login
2 hours ago - Technology

Intel CEO sees making own chips as a matter of national security

Pat Gelsinger. Photo: Axios on HBO

Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger is putting the pressure on the U.S. government to help subsidize chip manufacturing, insisting the current reliance on plants in Taiwan and Korea as "geopolitically unstable."

Why it matters: There is bipartisan support for funding the domestic semiconductor industry, but Congress has yet to sign the check. The Senate has passed the CHIPS Act that includes $52 billion in semiconductor investment, but it has yet to pass the House.

Updated 2 hours ago - World

17 U.S. and Canadian missionaries kidnapped in Haiti

Haitian soldiers guard the public prosecutor's office in Port-au-Prince this month. Photo: Richard Pierrin/AFP via Getty Images

Children are among a group of 17 missionaries kidnapped in Port-au-Prince, Haiti, per a statement from Christian Aid Ministries Sunday.

The latest: "The group of 16 U.S citizens and one Canadian citizen includes five men, seven women, and five children," the Ohio-based group said. Haitian police inspector Frantz Champagne on Sunday identified the 400 Mawozo gang as the group responsible, in a statement to AP.