The coronavirus outbreak will likely cause a drop in global carbon dioxide emissions that's far larger than any prior crisis or war, per a new analysis that combines multiple datasets to provide a wide-ranging look at the pandemic's effect.

What they found: The analysis from the U.K.-based Carbon Brief provides a tentative estimate that global CO2 emissions are likely to fall by more than 4% from 2019 levels.

Courtesy Carbon Brief
  • Data from countries and sectors not yet available is expected to increase the total, they find, and also note that some estimates of oil consumption declines have grown since they completed their post.
  • They also caution that efforts to gauge the virus' effects are complicated by unknowns about the duration of the crisis and lockdowns, among other variables.

Why it matters: It provides a sense of the staggering effects of the outbreak that's freezing huge amounts of travel and economic activity.

  • But it also provides an unfolding, real-time look at the immense challenge implementing policies that cut emissions steeply enough to meet the goals of the Paris climate agreement.

Here's how they contextualize a one-year drop of more 4%...

"Global emissions would need to fall by more than 6% every year this decade — more than 2,200MtCO2 annually — in order to limit warming to less than 1.5C above pre-industrial temperatures."

Don't forget: Tracking the emissions effects isn't the same as celebrating them. The Carbon Brief piece clears its throat by noting the pandemic is "decimating lives, livelihoods and the normal functioning of society."

Go deeper: The pandemic and pollution

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Elliott Abrams to replace Brian Hook as Trump's Iran envoy

Brian Hook. Photo: Tayfun Coskun/Anadolu Agency via Getty Image

President Trump's Iran envoy, Brian Hook, is stepping down, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo confirmed Thursday. He will be replaced with Venezuela envoy Elliott Abrams, a noted Iran hawk who will serve in both roles.

Why it matters: Hook had been tasked with executing Trump's "maximum pressure" policy toward Iran, working closely with Pompeo. That strategy has deepened tensions and thus far failed to force Iran back to the negotiating table, as Trump had hoped.

Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine tests positive for coronavirus ahead of Trump visit

Photo: Justin Merriman/Getty Images

Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine (R) has tested positive for COVID-19 and plans to quarantine at his home for the next 14 days, his office announced Thursday. He currently has no symptoms.

Why it matters: The 73-year-old DeWine was set to meet President Trump Thursday on the tarmac at an airport in Cleveland and was tested as part of standard protocol. He is the second governor known to have contracted the coronavirus, after Oklahoma Gov. Kevin Stitt (R).

Updated 50 mins ago - Politics & Policy

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Eniola Odetunde/Axios

  1. Global: Total confirmed cases as of 12:30 p.m. ET: 18,860,908 — Total deaths: 708,676— Total recoveries — 11,394,821Map.
  2. U.S.: Total confirmed cases as of 12:30 p.m. ET: 4,834,546 — Total deaths: 158,445 — Total recoveries: 1,577,851 — Total tests: 58,920,975Map.
  3. Politics: Pelosi rips GOP: "Perhaps you mistook them for somebody who gives a damn" — Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine tests positive.
  4. Public health: Fauci says task force will examine aerosolized spread.
  5. Business: July's jobs report could be an inflection point for the recovery — Teladoc and Livongo merge into virtual care giant.
  6. Sports: Where college football's biggest conferences stand on playing.