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Aerial view of coal being unloaded from a cargo ship at Lianyungang port on October 14, 2021 in Lianyungang, Jiangsu Province of China. Photo: Wang Jianmin/VCG via Getty Images.

Nations' formal emissions targets submitted under the Paris climate agreement, even if implemented, would fall well short of the deal's benchmarks for holding global warming in check, a new United Nations analysis concludes.

Why it matters: The report comes a week before a major UN climate summit convenes in Glasgow, Scotland that's aimed at pushing the world toward much more aggressive steps to rein in planet-warming emissions.

Threat level: The report analyzed 165 pledges, called Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), including revised 2030 targets submitted as of mid-October.

  • Overall, the existing plans would bring greenhouse gas emissions in 2030 that are 16% higher than 2010 levels, the UN found.
  • The UN says that such an increase, "unless changed quickly," could bring temperature rise of about 2.7°C (almost 4.9°F) above preindustrial levels by the end of the century.

The big picture: The 2015 Paris deal calls for limiting warming to "well below" 2°C and ideally 1.5°C, but the latter target is fast slipping out of reach.

  • Those are benchmarks for avoiding some of the most significant harms from climate change beyond damage already baked into the cake.
  • "Overshooting the temperature goals will lead to a destabilized world and endless suffering, especially among those who have contributed the least to the GHG emissions in the atmosphere," Patricia Espinosa, the top UN climate official, said in a statement alongside the report.

Yes, but: The report analysis of 165 existing and updated NDCs considered only revisions submitted through Oct. 12.

  • A handful have arrived since. More importantly China, by far the world's largest emitter, and India, the third largest, have yet to submit revisions to their existing targets.
  • They could increase their pledges before the summit opens Oct. 31, or during the two-week event.
  • Nonetheless, targets submitted under the Paris framework are non-binding and represent aspirational goals.

Go deeper

Northwest Arkansas is heating up

Expand chart
Data: Climate Central; Chart: Axios Visuals

This week's temperatures will push near-record highs for this time of year, but it's not an anomaly.

Details: The number of days in the fall with above-average temperatures has been creeping up for the past 50 years, according to NOAA data analyzed by climate science research group Climate Central.

JPMorgan: "Full global recovery" in 2022

Photo: Erik McGregor/LightRocket via Getty Images

JPMorgan Chase Global Research says in a forecast to clients: "2022 will be the year of a full global recovery, an end of the global pandemic, and a return to normal conditions we had prior to the COVID-19 outbreak."

The big picture: The bullish report sees "a return of global mobility, and a release of pent-up demand from consumers (e.g. travel, services)."

Inside Trump's hunt for "disloyal" Republicans

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

Donald Trump and his associates are systematically reshaping the Republican Party, working to install hand-picked loyalists across federal and state governments and destroy those he feels have been disloyal, sources close to the former president tell Axios.

Why it matters: If most or all of Trump’s candidates win, he will go into the 2024 election cycle with far more people willing to do his bidding who run the elections in key states.

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