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Data: IEA; Chart: Sara Wise/Axios

Soaring amounts of key minerals used in clean energy tech are needed to fight climate change, but costs and supply risks could create big headwinds, a new International Energy Agency analysis finds.

Why it matters: "Today’s mineral supply and investment plans fall short of what is needed to transform the energy sector, raising the risk of delayed or more expensive energy transitions," IEA warns.

The big picture: Growth in solar and wind, electric vehicles, stationary battery storage and other grid technologies will require much more lithium, cobalt, nickel, copper, graphite, rare earth elements and more.

  • That's especially true for clean tech deployment on a scale consistent with the goals of the Paris climate deal.
  • Though it varies by mineral, aggregate demand quadruples over two decades in IEA's "Sustainable Development Scenario." That's an energy system model that keeps temperature rise well below 2°C.
  • But new supply projects have a considerable time lag and are often accompanied by price volatility.

The intrigue: "An even faster transition, to hit net-zero [emissions] globally by 2050, would require six times more mineral inputs in 2040 than today," IEA finds.

Threat level: Rapid scale-up of clean energy could face "huge questions" about commodity reliability, availability and prices that could slow cost declines and create bottlenecks.

  • For instance, a doubling of lithium and nickel costs could offset all projected cost declines from a doubling of battery production.
  • "[I]n a scenario consistent with climate goals, expected supply from existing mines and projects under construction is estimated to meet only half of projected lithium and cobalt requirements and 80% of copper needs by 2030," IEA said.
Data: IEA; Chart: Sara Wise/Axios

Another part of the new IEA report shows the geographic concentration of mineral production and processing — as you can see it's very different than fossil fuel distribution.

  • "High levels of concentration, compounded by complex supply chains, increase the risks that could arise from physical disruption, trade restrictions or other developments in major producing countries," IEA notes.

What they're saying: The report recommends steps around supply chain diversification and new development in countries with untapped resources.

  • Another idea: "Voluntary strategic stockpiling can in some cases help countries weather short-term supply disruptions." Bloomberg has more.

What's next: The report offers recommendations for bolstering supply and reliability while addressing the environmental footprint of mining.

  • Some of it is chicken and egg — "strong signals" from policymakers about tackling climate change will drive supply investment.
  • IEA also calls for enhanced R&D to help use materials more efficiently and find substitutes.
  • The report also recommends more efforts around recycling and stronger environmental and human rights standards that reward responsible suppliers.

Go deeper: The renewable threat to biodiversity

Go deeper

Internet response to dire UN climate report was muted vs. 2018

Expand chart
Data: NewsWhip; Chart: Danielle Alberti/Axios

This week's UN IPCC report made a bigger splash online than a special report the panel issued in 2019, but one that was well below 2018's examination of the feasibility of holding global warming to 1.5°C (2.7°F), according to exclusive data provided by NewsWhip.

Why it matters: The data shows that the shock factor needed to jolt the public into demanding — and taking — action to curb the effects of climate change may be wearing off. It may also show that the report, or the media coverage of the findings, was too alarming and turned people off from engaging with it, given the headlines it generated.

Tina Reed, author of Vitals
4 hours ago - Health

FDA panel endorses shot of J&J booster for adults

Photo: Wolfgang Kumm/picture alliance via Getty Images)

Members of the Food and Drug Administration's vaccine expert panel on Friday unanimously endorsed a booster shot for adult recipients of Johnson & Johnson's COVID-19 vaccine at least two months after the initial dose.

Why it matters: The advisory committee raised concerns about a dearth of data to support their decision but ultimately decided to support an additional shot for those over 18.

Capitol Police officer indicted for obstructing Jan. 6 investigation

Trump supporters clash with police and security forces as people try to storm the Capitol on Jan. 6. Photo: Brent Stirton/Getty Images

A U.S. Capitol Police officer has been indicted on obstruction of justice charges for allegedly helping hide evidence of a participant's involvement in the Jan. 6 riot.

Driving the news: Officer Michael A. Riley, 50, is accused of telling the unidentified participant, referred to as "Person 1," in the Jan. 6 riot to delete posts from Facebook, which showed them in the Capitol during the attack.