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Bolsonaro. Photo: Evaristo SA/AFP/Getty Images

Brazil’s economy contracted in the first quarter of 2019, raising the prospect of another recession in Latin America’s largest country, per the BBC.

Why it matters: This is more bad news for President Jair Bolsonaro, who had promised to revive an economy that has limped out of a damaging recession in 2015–2016.

  • The electorate is impatient. Five months into his presidency, Bolsonaro’s approval ratings have been cut in half, to about 30%.
  • The FT’s Andres Schipani says he’s alienating much of the country with his focus on “culture wars,” and “shrinking back to his original power base of 15-20% of the electorate."

The big question for investors is whether Bolsonaro will deliver much-needed pension reforms.

  • “We think it will come through [later this year], but the difficulty is how far it will be watered down as it gets through Congress,” says the FT’s Michael Stott, speaking on the World Weekly podcast. “Because Bolsonaro, we shouldn’t forget, doesn’t have a majority in Congress” and hasn’t had much success negotiating with them so far.

Go deeper

Tech scrambles to derail inauguration threats

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

Tech companies are sharing more information with law enforcement in a frantic effort to prevent violence around the inauguration, after the government was caught flat-footed by the Capitol siege.

Between the lines: Tech knows it will be held accountable for any further violence that turns out to have been planned online if it doesn't act to stop it.

Dave Lawler, author of World
2 hours ago - World

Uganda's election: Museveni declared winner, Wine claims fraud

Wine rejected the official results of the election. Photo: Sumy Sadruni/AFP via Getty

Yoweri Museveni was declared the winner of a sixth presidential term on Saturday, with official results giving him 59% to 35% for Bobi Wine, the singer-turned-opposition leader.

Why it matters: This announcement was predictable, as the election was neither free nor fair and Museveni had no intention of surrendering power after 35 years. But Wine — who posed a strong challenged to Museveni, particularly in urban areas, and was beaten and arrested during the campaign — has said he will present evidence of fraud. The big question is whether he will mobilize mass resistance in the streets.

Off the Rails

Episode 1: A premeditated lie lit the fire

Photo illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios. Photo: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

Beginning on election night 2020 and continuing through his final days in office, Donald Trump unraveled and dragged America with him, to the point that his followers sacked the U.S. Capitol with two weeks left in his term. Axios takes you inside the collapse of a president with a special series.

Episode 1: Trump’s refusal to believe the election results was premeditated. He had heard about the “red mirage” — the likelihood that early vote counts would tip more Republican than the final tallies — and he decided to exploit it.

"Jared, you call the Murdochs! Jason, you call Sammon and Hemmer!”

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