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GLASGOW, Scotland Bill Gates sees a role for Big Oil companies and their skill sets in the transition to clean energy but doesn't think all the incumbents will be left standing.

Driving the news: Gates, in a briefing Wednesday, cautioned against assuming "new eras are marked by the falling of giants," but added: "Yes, some of these giants will fall, you know, 30 years from now, some of those oil companies will be worth very little."

  • "I hope a few of the big companies make it. We're certainly open-minded. The whole idea of cutting off investment in the old as a tactic, as opposed to investing in the new, I just don't get that," he said.
  • "A few of the big guys I think will make the transition."

Zoom in: A number of oil majors — led by the European giants — have been diversifying into areas like renewables and EV charging and hydrogen, though oil and gas remain their dominant business lines.

  • Gates sees potential in areas like "blue" hydrogen and also noted, "we have a pipeline infrastructure in the United States that probably can be retrofitted to transmit hydrogen."

The big picture: I asked about Big Oil but Gates was really here to talk up the expansion of initiatives through his Breakthrough Energy group.

  • One is Catalyst, a partnership between Breakthrough, huge corporations and government partners to steer billions of dollars into commercially scaling promising technologies.
  • At COP26 it announced new partners including Citi and the Ikea Foundation and formalized a partnership with the European Commission and European Investment Bank to mobilize capital for areas like long-duration storage.

Go deeper

Your electric car could become a virtual power plant

Illustration: Megan Robinson/Axios

That electric car parked in your driveway may soon be more than a fun, emissions-free ride. When lashed together in the cloud with other EVs in your neighborhood, it could help utilities manage electricity demand in your community.

Why it matters: Massive growth in electric vehicle adoption which is widely expected — means that more car owners will be plugging in at home, putting pressure on America's electric grid but creating power-sharing opportunities at the same time.

  • Emerging smart-charging technologies aim to build in more flexibility so grid upgrades aren't needed and EV owners will have all the juice they need.

What's happening: EV owners can earn rebates and cash rewards from smart-charging programs by letting utilities control when their car is charged based on overall electricity demand.

  • In Texas, for example, about 1,000 EV owners participate in a smart-charging project with the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT).
  • Together, those cars serve as a cloud-based "virtual power plant" that ERCOT can use to suck or store energy during demand peaks and valleys.
  • In Wisconsin, Madison Gas and Electric shifts charging times for 200 EVs to off-peak hours so they can soak up renewable energy generated overnight by wind farms.
  • Both utilities license the smart-charging technology from a London-based company called ev.energy, which has offices in Palo Alto.

The big picture: EV owners do more than 80% of their charging at home, according to a BloombergNEF analysis of ev.energy data from more than 1 million at-home charging sessions in the U.S., U.K. and Europe.

  • Most of them plug in after work, start charging right away, and stay plugged in overnight, often setting the departure time for their morning commute.

Yes, but: The typical charging session requires just a little top-off — 2.5 hours of charging — which means most EVs are drawing energy in the early evening when residential demand is at its peak and electricity rates are highest.

Smart-charging technology can delay charging until demand has gone down, and greener, cheaper energy is more readily available.

  • That lets utilities balance electricity demand while also maximizing the use of renewable energy and putting more money in EV owners' pockets.
  • An EV owner in California could save an estimated $600 per year charging at off-peak times, BNEF found.

How it works: EV owners plug in their car, set a departure time using ev.energy's app, and let the utility figure out the ideal charging time based on a 24-hour forecast of energy demand.

  • If necessary, the software will pause charging at the utility's request, then resume later.
  • Car owners' flexibility earns them rebates or cash rewards of $5 or $10 a month.

The utility will never drain the car's battery, says Joseph Vellone, head of North America for ev.energy. "Your departure time is the holy grail."

  • "The electricity system is incredibly complex. EV buyers can’t be bothered to immerse themselves in this complexity. We ask them one question: What time do you need your car charged by?"

Editor's note: This story has been corrected to show that Madison Gas and Electric shifts charging times for 200 EVs to off-peak hours for maximum efficiency, not 2,000 EVs. A partner company, ev.energy, reached out to say there was a numerical mistake in the report it shared with Axios.

Updated 2 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Congressional leaders clinch support for crucial defense bill, debt limit votes

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer passes waiting reporters on Tuesday. Photo: Eric Lee/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Congress has found a shortcut to pass its annual defense funding bill and raise the debt limit.

Driving the news: The House voted Tuesday night on two major bills — one creating a one-time, fast-track process for the Senate to raise the debt ceiling with just 51 votes, and another passing its annual defense bill.

House passes annual defense bill

Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi. Photo: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

The House voted to pass the annual defense bill 363-70 on Tuesday night, authorizing nearly $770 billion in funding for defenses and national security programs.

Why it matters: The National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) still has to clear the Senate, but the House passage greatly increases the chances that the must-pass defense bill will move through both chambers of Congress before the end of the year.