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President Trump will soon decide on whether the U.S. will stay in or withdraw from the 2015 global climate deal struck in Paris. Here is where his allies and enemies stand on the issue:

Expand chart
Chart: Chris Canipe / Axios

Inside the Trump administration

  • Why they matter: They're the decision-makers and before it comes down to Trump, it comes down to them. They're the ones being influenced by all sides by outside interests and by each other within the administration.
  • Their limitations: One thing everyone inside the White House can agree on is that the ultimate decision will come down to whatever Trump wants, and we've learned by now his decision-making is unpredictable.
Outside Trump administration
  • Why they matter: This group is the most diverse, ranging from interest groups to companies to world leaders. It's likely to prove the most influential group outside the White House because of potential direct impact: Companies whose businesses could be affected by a global climate deal, and the world leaders whose own participation in that deal could wane without U.S. leadership. They'll all be trying to get Trump on the phone.
  • Their limitations: They have a lot of other issues grabbing their attention, and most of these interests are rising above a constant drumbeat of the climate deal, whose impacts are far-reaching but not immediate.
Inside Congress
  • Why they matter: Congress always matter, to a point anyway, and they can channel the concerns of interest groups and voters.
  • Their limitations: They have a lot of issues demanding their attention too, particularly healthcare and tax overhaul efforts. This Congress has generally shown less interest in this issue compared to other policies on Trump's agenda, and the president might find them easy to ignore those he disagrees with.

Go deeper

Updated 1 hour ago - World

Reports: Brazil leader to be accused of crimes against humanity over COVID

Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro. Photo: Andressa Anholete/Bloomberg via Getty Images

A Brazilian Senate panel will recommend President Jair Bolsonaro be charged with "crimes against humanity," alleging his COVID-19 pandemic response led to hundreds of thousands of deaths, per the New York Times and the Washington Post.

The latest: The lawmakers initially said Bolsonaro should be charged with mass homicide and genocide, but lawmakers updated the report to replace these with the new charge, its lead author, Sen. Renan Calheiros, told the NYT.

California governor declares drought emergency for entire state

California Gov. Gavin Newsom speakinng to reporters in Los Angeles in September. Photo: Allen J. Schaben/Los Angeles Times via Getty Images

California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) extended a drought emergency declaration to cover the entire state on Tuesday.

Why it matters: "California is experiencing its worst drought since the late 1800s, as measured by both lack of precipitation and high temperatures," per a statement from the governor's office. This past August was the driest and hottest one on record, "and the water year that ended last month was the second driest on record," the statement added.

Updated 4 hours ago - World

North Korea claims latest missile test new weapon launched from submarine

North Korean state media claims the country's military fired this missile on Tuesday. Photo: Korean Central News Agency

North Korean state media announced that a detected ballistic missile launch off its east coast on Tuesday was a newly developed weapon test-fired from a submarine.

Why it matters: Pyongyang's latest in a series of recent missile launches into the sea happened hours after U.S. officials emphasized their commitment to restart negotiations on North Korea's nuclear weapons program, which have stalled since talks broke down during the Trump administration, AP notes.