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President Trump will soon decide on whether the U.S. will stay in or withdraw from the 2015 global climate deal struck in Paris. Here is where his allies and enemies stand on the issue:

Expand chart
Chart: Chris Canipe / Axios

Inside the Trump administration

  • Why they matter: They're the decision-makers and before it comes down to Trump, it comes down to them. They're the ones being influenced by all sides by outside interests and by each other within the administration.
  • Their limitations: One thing everyone inside the White House can agree on is that the ultimate decision will come down to whatever Trump wants, and we've learned by now his decision-making is unpredictable.
Outside Trump administration
  • Why they matter: This group is the most diverse, ranging from interest groups to companies to world leaders. It's likely to prove the most influential group outside the White House because of potential direct impact: Companies whose businesses could be affected by a global climate deal, and the world leaders whose own participation in that deal could wane without U.S. leadership. They'll all be trying to get Trump on the phone.
  • Their limitations: They have a lot of other issues grabbing their attention, and most of these interests are rising above a constant drumbeat of the climate deal, whose impacts are far-reaching but not immediate.
Inside Congress
  • Why they matter: Congress always matter, to a point anyway, and they can channel the concerns of interest groups and voters.
  • Their limitations: They have a lot of issues demanding their attention too, particularly healthcare and tax overhaul efforts. This Congress has generally shown less interest in this issue compared to other policies on Trump's agenda, and the president might find them easy to ignore those he disagrees with.

Go deeper

30 mins ago - World

In photos: Deadly Cyclone Tauktae leaves trail of destruction across India

A police officer helps a public transport driver cross a flooded street due to heavy rain caused by Tropical Cyclone Tauktae in Mumbai, India, on May 17. Photo: Ashish Vaishnav/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images

Tropical Cyclone Tauktae killed at least 16 people in India after making landfall in Gujarat Monday, packing 100mph winds, and sweeping across Kerala, Karnataka, Goa and Maharashtra, per Reuters.

The big picture: The storm unleashed heavy rains and winds as authorities continued to grapple with surging infection rates and deaths from COVID-19. Over 200,000 people were evacuated from Gujarat, and ports, airports and vaccination centers shut in the state and Mumbai, Reuters reports. Tauktae weakened from a Category 3 storm into a "severe cyclonic storm" Tuesday morning local time.

3 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Scoop: Yellen wants business to help foot infrastructure bill

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen. Photo: Alex Wong/Getty Images

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is heading into the belly of the beast Tuesday and asking the business community to support President Biden's $2.3 trillion infrastructure plan during a speech to the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.

Why it matters: By trying to persuade a skeptical and targeted audience, Yellen is signaling the president’s commitment to raising corporate taxes to pay for his plan. Republican senators, critical to a potential bipartisan deal, oppose any corporate tax increase.

3 hours ago - World

Schumer's Israel vise

Sen. Chuck Schumer addresses the American Israel Public Affairs Committee in March 2014. Photo: Nicholas Kamm/AFP via Getty Images

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer's longtime support for Israel puts him on a collision course with the progressive wing of his party as the conflict between Israel and Hamas worsens.

Why it matters: This is the toughest political position the New York Democrat has been in since becoming majority leader. The fighting in the Middle East is dividing his party — and creating a clear rift among its different wings.