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Photo: Ben McCanna / Getty

A new research note from Bank of America (BofA) Merrill Lynch analysts predicts that global crude oil demand will peak by 2030 thanks to very fast electric vehicle adoption beginning in the early 2020s. They see EVs reaching 40% of new car sales by 2030 and 95% of new sales by mid-century.

Why it matters: The timing of the global demand apex — and the rate of decline thereafter — has major ramifications for the finances of oil-producing economies and, more broadly, the earth's climate.

What's new: The BofA report breaks with several major forecasting bodies and analysts, who predict a much later peak.

On the other side: In contrast, the main forecasts from the International Energy Agency, the U.S. Energy Information Administration, and OPEC do not even see a peak by 2040.

  • Nonetheless, some forecasters say the peak could be coming into focus sooner. The prominent consultancy Wood Mackenzie said in mid-October that demand could peak as soon as 2035, and Royal Dutch Shell's CEO Ben van Beurden has predicted a peak could occur by the late 2020s, though his comments have been soaked with caveats.

To be sure: BofA acknowledges uncertainties in their forecast, especially the known unknowns about EV penetration. But that said, their report is noteworthy because it argues that EVs will curtail the global thirst for oil so much that the decline will outpace other areas of heavy demand — namely petrochemicals and trucking — in the not-too-distant future.

Go deeper

Scoop: Garland defends DOJ's handling of Jan. 6 probe

Attorney General Merrick Garland. Photo: Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images

Attorney General Merrick Garland will tell the House Judiciary Committee on Thursday that federal prosecutors "are doing exactly what they are expected to do" in seeking accountability for the "intolerable assault" on the Capitol on Jan. 6, Axios has learned.

Why it matters: Allies of former President Trump, including Republican congressmen, have criticized the department's treatment rioters charged with crimes, and sought to recast the insurrection as a righteous protest. Garland's testimony with be his first appearance before the panel.

Updated 42 mins ago - World

Police charge man with murder of British MP David Amess

Police outside Belfairs Methodist Church in Leigh-on-Sea, England, on Oct. 15. Photo: John Keeble/Getty Images

Police said Thursday that Ali Harbi Ali, a 25-year-old British man, has been charged with the murder of David Amess, a Conservative Party lawmaker in the U.K.

The big picture: Last week, the Metropolitan Police declared the fatal stabbing a terrorist incident, saying that they had found "a potential motivation linked to Islamist extremism."

47 mins ago - Health

Pfizer booster has 95.6% efficacy against COVID, large study shows

Photo: Scott Olson/Getty Images

A booster shot of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine is 95.6% effective against the coronavirus, compared with those who only had the first two initial doses, according to a large study released Thursday.

Why it matters: The study, which had more than 10,000 participants aged 16 and older, is the first controlled, randomized trial looking at boosters and their effectiveness, the companies said.