Sign up for our daily briefing

Make your busy days simpler with Axios AM/PM. Catch up on what's new and why it matters in just 5 minutes.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday

Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Denver news in your inbox

Catch up on the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Denver

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Des Moines news in your inbox

Catch up on the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Des Moines

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Minneapolis-St. Paul news in your inbox

Catch up on the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Twin Cities

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Tampa Bay news in your inbox

Catch up on the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Tampa Bay

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Charlotte news in your inbox

Catch up on the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Charlotte

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

The Senate's health-care overhaul would quickly pull $215 billion in federal funding out of the health care system, and those cuts could later grow as high as $4 trillion, according to a new analysis from the consulting firm Avalere Health.

Why it matters: Avalere is a respected and independent voice, and because the Congressional Budget Office won't have time to completely evaluate the bill's effects before a vote, this will likely be one of the best estimates we have available.

Expand chart

Data: Avalere Health Consulting; Cartogram: Lazaro Gamio / Axios

What Avalere found: The bill, sponsored by Sens. Lindsey Graham and Bill Cassidy, would redistribute federal health care dollars while also shrinking the overall pot. Avalere's analysis looks at how the cuts would grow over time:

  • 2020-2026: Total federal spending would shrink by $215 billion; 34 states and Washington, D.C. would lose money, compared with the status quo, while seven states would get more.
  • By 2027, the total national cut would climb to $489 billion.
  • 2027-2036: Federal spending would shrink by more than $4 trillion, and every state would be getting less than they're on track to get under current law.

Key caveat: The Graham-Cassidy bill would roll federal funding for the Affordable Care Act's premium subsidies and Medicaid expansion into a single pool, then convert it into block grants to the states. Those grants are set to expire in 2026. Avalere analyzed the bill as written — with that money disappearing completely — but the bill's supporters say Congress would obviously step in to authorize a new round of grants.

Go deeper

2 hours ago - Health

U.S. surpasses 25 million COVID cases

A mass COVID-19 vaccination site at Dodger Stadium on Jan. 22 in Los Angeles, California. Photo: Mario Tama/Getty Images

The U.S has confirmed more than 25 million coronavirus cases, per Johns Hopkins data updated on Sunday.

The big picture: President Biden has said he expects the country's death toll to exceed 500,000 people by next month, as the rate of deaths due to the virus continues to escalate.

GOP implosion: Trump threats, payback

Spotted last week on a work van in Evansville, Ind. Photo: Sam Owens/The Evansville Courier & Press via Reuters

The GOP is getting torn apart by a spreading revolt against party leaders for failing to stand up for former President Trump and punish his critics.

Why it matters: Republican leaders suffered a nightmarish two months in Washington. Outside the nation’s capital, it's even worse.

Erica Pandey, author of @Work
6 hours ago - Economy & Business

The limits of Biden's plan to cancel student debt

Data: New York Fed Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax; Chart: Axios Visuals

There’s a growing consensus among Americans who want President Biden to cancel student debt — but addressing the ballooning debt burden is much more complicated than it seems.

Why it matters: Student debt is stopping millions of Americans from buying homes, buying cars and starting families. And the crisis is rapidly getting worse.

You’ve caught up. Now what?

Sign up for Mike Allen’s daily Axios AM and PM newsletters to get smarter, faster on the news that matters.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!