Sign up for our daily briefing

Make your busy days simpler with Axios AM/PM. Catch up on what's new and why it matters in just 5 minutes.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Catch up on the day's biggest business stories

Subscribe to Axios Closer for insights into the day’s business news and trends and why they matter

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Stay on top of the latest market trends

Subscribe to Axios Markets for the latest market trends and economic insights. Sign up for free.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Sports news worthy of your time

Binge on the stats and stories that drive the sports world with Axios Sports. Sign up for free.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Tech news worthy of your time

Get our smart take on technology from the Valley and D.C. with Axios Login. Sign up for free.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Get the inside stories

Get an insider's guide to the new White House with Axios Sneak Peek. Sign up for free.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday

Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Denver news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Denver

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Des Moines news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Des Moines

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Twin Cities news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Twin Cities

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Tampa Bay news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Tampa Bay

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Charlotte news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Charlotte

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

A Pakistani stockbroker looks at an index board during a trading session at the Pakistan Stock Exchange in Karachi on July 4, 2018. Photo: Rizwan Tabassum/AFP via Getty Images

Pakistan’s national election campaign has ended, and voters are headed to the polls today. With the incumbent PML-N party hobbled by numerous criminal cases, electoral disqualifications, and arrests, and with its leader in prison, most analysts expect that Imran Khan’s PTI party will win the vote.

The big picture: Whatever coalition government forms will have to confront a brewing balance-of-payments emergency, not unlike those in 1999, 2008 and 2013. Pakistan lacks sufficient currency reserves to cover its imports for more than 2 months (the IMF recommends having enough for at least 3). If Pakistan can’t cover those costs or the service on its debts, its economy could sink into a crisis.

Global economic conditions have exacerbated the problems, as rising oil prices and declining remittance flows into the country have led ratings agencies to downgrade Pakistan’s outlook to “negative.”

Another challenge is rising Pakistani imports for China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) infrastructure projects. Chinese soft loans are supposed to stimulate private investment, industrial production and export growth, but these have not materialized, and investors worry about corruption, taxation, political instability and bureaucratic red tape.

While the military has been the guardian of the Pakistani state, it lacks the tools or training to effectively steer the economy, leaving the job up to civilians, whether technocrats or politicians.

Pakistan is likely to follow its past playbook and turn to Saudi Arabia, the IMF or China for cash — but each would come with strings attached. Saudi Arabia could demand military support in Yemen; the IMF could require significant economic reforms, with the U.S. seeking greater Pakistani pressure on the Taliban; and China might insist on equity swaps in exchange for stabilization loans or debt restructuring.

What to watch: After the electoral dust settles, various states will likely continue jockeying for opportunities in Pakistan's unsteady economy.

Sameer Lalwani is senior fellow for Asia strategy and South Asia Program co-director at the Stimson Center.

Go deeper

Read: Former Vice President Walter Mondale's last message

Photo courtesy of Mondale.

Former Vice President Walter Mondale wrote a farewell letter to his staff, sent upon his death on Monday, thanking them for years working together.

Dear Team,

Well my time has come. I am eager to rejoin Joan and Eleanor. Before I Go I wanted to let you know how much you mean to me. Never has a public servant had a better group of people working at their side!

Together we have accomplished so much and I know you will keep up the good fight.

Joe in the White House certainly helps.

I always knew it would be okay if I arrived some place and was greeted by one of you!

My best to all of you!

Fritz

Former Vice President Walter Mondale dies at 93

Walter Mondale, left, with former President Jimmy Carter in Jan. 2018 at the McNamara Alumni Center on the University of Minnesota's campus in Minneapolis. Photo: Anthony Souffle/Star Tribune via Getty Images

Walter Mondale, who transformed the role of U.S. vice president while serving under Jimmy Carter and was the Democratic nominee for president in 1984, died Monday at 93, according to a family spokesperson.

The big picture: President Biden, who was mentored by Mondale through the years, said in 2015 that the former vice president gave him a "roadmap" to successfully take on the job.

Scoop: U.S. ambassador refuses Kremlin push to leave Russia

U.S. Ambassador to Russia John Sullivan. Photo: Anton Novoderezhkin/TASS via Getty Images

The United States ambassador to Russia is refusing to leave the country after the Kremlin "advised" him to return home following new Biden administration sanctions, two sources briefed on the situation tell Axios.

Why it matters: John Sullivan, a respected diplomat who President Biden has, so far, retained from the Trump era, is at the center of one of the most important early tests of Biden's resolve.