Sign up for our daily briefing

Make your busy days simpler with Axios AM/PM. Catch up on what's new and why it matters in just 5 minutes.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday

Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Denver news in your inbox

Catch up on the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Denver

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Des Moines news in your inbox

Catch up on the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Des Moines

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Minneapolis-St. Paul news in your inbox

Catch up on the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Twin Cities

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Tampa Bay news in your inbox

Catch up on the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Tampa Bay

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Charlotte news in your inbox

Catch up on the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Charlotte

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

President Trump has said the Democrats will take the fall politically if and when Obamacare "explodes." But new polling shows that the public will hold Trump and the GOP accountable for failing to address problems in the marketplaces, not the Democrats. That means they'll have to think twice about some of the moves they might make that could make the Affordable Care Act's problems worse.

Expand chart
Note: Neither of these/someone else is responsible, Both are equally responsible, and Don't know/Refused responses not shown; Data: Kaiser Family Foundation Health Tracking Poll (March 28 - April 3, 2017); Chart: Andrew Witherspoon / Axios

What's on the line: The polling has direct implications for some of the specific actions Republicans could take, or not take, in the months ahead:

  • Eliminating the $7 billion in federal cost sharing subsidies to insurers to compensate them for providing smaller deductibles to lower income enrollees.
  • No longer enforcing the individual mandate that helps get younger, healthier people into the insurance pools to lower premium costs.
  • No longer marketing the healthcare.gov plans to boost enrollment.

These steps would cause insurers to exit the non-group market, cause premiums to spike, and could leave millions without affordable coverage.

As the chart from our latest tracking poll shows, 62% of the public say Trump and the Republicans in Congress are in charge of the government and are responsible for problems with the ACA from now on; just 31% say President Obama and the Democrats are responsible. As is always the case with the ACA, there are party differences; 81% of Democrats and 65% of Independents said Trump and the Republicans "own it", but just 35% of Republicans feel that way.

Trump has also said that the collapse of the ACA would bring Democrats to the table to forge a new "deal" with him on health care. That's not impossible, but it seems unlikely: it's hard to think of a single major element of health reform where the Democrats agree with the president and the Republicans.

As we saw when the Freedom Caucus refused to support the American Health Care Act because it wasn't conservative enough for them, the substance and the details matter to policymakers far more than they appear to the President. He has suggested that he mostly wants a deal on health care.

Basic rules of politics seem to be holding up pretty well in the fights over the ACA. One rule, that benefits once conferred on the American people cannot be taken away, was a primary reason for the collapse of the GOP health care plan. The other: If severe problems develop in the marketplaces, or are caused by actions the administration takes to undermine the law, the party in charge gets the blame.

Go deeper

Updated 20 mins ago - Politics & Policy

Inauguration Day dashboard

U.S. Capitol and stage are lit at sunrise ahead of the inauguration of Joe Biden. Photo: Patrick Semansky - Pool/Getty Images

President Biden has delivered his inaugural address at the Capitol, calling for an end to the politics as total war but warning that "we have far to go" to heal the country.

What's next: Biden has arrived at the White House and he will sign executive orders and other presidential actions.

48 mins ago - Podcasts

Podcast: After the Biden inaugural

Joe Biden was sworn in today as America's 46th president in an inauguration unlike any other in modern history.

Axios Re:Cap goes deeper into the speech, the atmosphere and what it all tells us about the incoming administration, with Axios political reporters Hans Nichols and Alexi McCammond.

Biden embarks on a consequential presidency

Photo illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios. Photo: Joe Raedle/Getty Images

Donald Trump tried everything to delegitimize the rival who vanquished him. In reality, he's set Joe Biden on course to be a far more consequential U.S. president than he might otherwise have become.

The big picture: President Biden now confronts not just a pandemic, but massive political divisions and an assault on truth — and the aftermath of the assault on the Capitol two weeks ago that threatened democracy itself.

You’ve caught up. Now what?

Sign up for Mike Allen’s daily Axios AM and PM newsletters to get smarter, faster on the news that matters.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!