Democrats' blue wave leaves climate behind

Driving the news: Democrats up and down the ballot campaigned overwhelmingly on affordability, including fuel prices surging amid President Trump's Iran war and rising electricity bills, accentuated by the AI boom.

The big picture: The relative absence of climate change is striking considering that Democrats of all political stripes won big.

Zoom in: Even some of the party's most prominent climate advocates emphasized affordability over climate change — or reconsidered ambitious climate policies in response to rising costs.

• New York Gov. Kathy Hochul, who previously championed the state's ambitious climate agenda, pushed to weaken parts of its landmark climate law this year, citing affordability concerns.

• Sen. Ed Markey (D-Mass.), who co-authored the Green New Deal, played down the proposal during his reelection campaign, emphasizing affordability and other priorities instead.
• Texas Sen.-elect James Talarico, who has previously warned about fossil fuels' impact on the planet, campaigned on protecting oil and gas jobs alongside expanding renewable energy and lowering electricity bills.

Flashback: The political shift has been underway since the 2024 presidential election, when even climate-focused groups began de-emphasizing climate change in their political advertising, a trend that persisted through the midterms.

State of play: On a call with reporters the day after the election, leading environmental groups celebrated Democrats' victories as a rejection of Trump's energy policies, arguing that his attacks on clean energy contributed to higher electricity bills.

• "Trump's energy agenda was an economic disaster for families and a political disaster for Republicans, and voters sent a very loud message," said Lori Lodes, president of Climate Power, an advocacy group that spent heavily on the election.

Yes, but: While the Green New Deal-era approach of campaigning explicitly on climate change is mostly gone, Democrats are repositioning clean energy as one part of a broader focus on affordability and the economy.

• "There's no question that climate change is going to be a more vocal part of the agenda under Democrat leadership," said Jason Grumet, head of the American Clean Power Association, this week. "And I think that people recognize that the solution flows more from an abundance premise than a restrictive premise."

Zoom out: The affordability-first approach reflects a broader reckoning within the climate movement.

• "We have to find the limited spaces for progress in a world where climate is even more deprioritized than it was a couple years ago," Armond Cohen, executive director of Clean Air Task Force, told Axios in an interview before the election.
• Cohen's organization recently unveiled a revised strategy focused on climate solutions that governments can more realistically afford and that can attract support across political lines.

What we're watching: The election of Democrats in traditionally Republican, fossil-fuel-producing states like Texas could reinforce the party's emphasis on affordable energy and economic development rather than an explicit transition away from fossil fuels.

Reality check: Even though climate change has faded as a top political priority, its physical impacts — and mounting economic costs — aren't going away.

The intrigue: As Axios' Ben Geman pointed out earlier this week, Democrats are unlikely to revive the House Select Committee on the Climate Crisis, though no decision has been announced.

• A current-day version could instead focus on energy affordability, building on efforts like the existing Gas and Utilities Affordability Working Group.

What's next: Next week will offer a split-screen reality.

• The Senate is poised to begin debate on a wonky but important bill aimed at expediting energy projects of all kinds, whose impact on climate change could be significant — or not.
• Meanwhile, some Democratic lawmakers plan to attend the annual United Nations climate conference beginning Monday in Antalya, Turkey.