How the permitting bill could collapse
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Congress has its best chance in years to pass sweeping permitting legislation, but a series of political and policy obstacles could derail the bipartisan Senate plan.
Why it matters: Cutting hurdles for energy projects is a top priority for fossil fuels and renewables sectors, and major business groups more broadly.
Here are five risks to a lame-duck deal:
👱♂️ President Trump himself. The White House says it supports the bill, but Trump is mercurial, so nothing is final until it's final.
- His administration's willingness — or not — to loosen the screws on wind and solar projects it's restricting could also sway the lame-duck politics and complicate efforts to win Democratic support.
- Flashback: Co-author Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.) last month cited "unresolved" questions about Trump officials returning to "regular order" for renewables, but credited their "very reasonable" proposal.
🗳️ A big blue wave. Rep. Jared Huffman (D-Calif.), a senior House Democrat, has been arguing that Democrats will have more leverage next year.
- For now, there's little evidence that view is gaining traction among Democrats. The few definitive statements on the bill from lawmakers in both parties are supportive. But a strong Democratic showing in November could change that calculation.
- The big arguments against waiting: Dems won't have 60 votes even if they take the Senate, and Trump still needs to sign anything, limiting the prospects for a better deal next year.
🟩 Environmentalists. Groups with close ties to Dems — such as the Natural Resources Defense Council, League of Conservation Voters and Evergreen Action — are still weighing their positions on the bill.
- A coordinated push against it could make it harder for Democratic lawmakers to back the legislation.
⚡ Utilities. Regulated utilities would see new competition in transmission development and greater oversight of their planning and business.
- American Electric Power and Berkshire Hathaway Energy support the bill, but the sector's trade group — the Edison Electric Institute — has not taken a position.
⏰ The lame-duck squeeze. A busy legislative calendar, potential changes to the bill and uncertainty about lawmakers' appetite for legislating after the election could leave too little time to secure passage through both chambers.
- Already, House Energy and Commerce Chair Brett Guthrie (R-Ky.) told Punchbowl News that he wants to modify the electricity provisions.
- If Republicans lose the House majority, their willingness to push a major bipartisan deal across the finish line could diminish.
- "It's hard to convince people to hang around and wait for something to happen when they're being constantly reminded that they lost," Jeff Navin, a former Democratic Hill staffer and co-founder of clean tech lobbying firm Boundary Stone Partners, said via email.
The bottom line: This is a partial list!
- To riff on Mickey Rourke's advice to William Hurt in the great 1981 noir flick "Body Heat," there are 50 ways to mess up any bill, and if you can think of 25, you're a genius.
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