A costly crisis for American drivers

Cumulative extra cost of buying 100 gallons of regular gasoline each week at the weekly price instead of paying the price at the beginning of the conflict. Over the first 26 weeks, the Iran-war line ends at about $2,835 and the Ukraine-invasion line at about $2,137. — Each week compares the cost of 100 gallons at that week's price with the cost of 100 gallons at the price at the beginning of the conflict. Week 0 = $0 extra; if that week's price is lower, the running total goes down. Data: U.S. Energy Information Administration; Chart: Andrew Pantazi/Axios

Fuel price increases in the first six months of the Iran conflict are costing U.S. drivers far more than the same stretch after Russia's invasion of Ukraine pushed up costs.

Why it matters: Trump administration officials have emphasized — correctly — that gasoline hit an all-time high under Biden of over $5 per gallon, well above May's $4.56 high during the Iran war.

But the price elevation since attacks on Iran began Feb. 28 has been more persistent.

The big picture: We tracked what 100 gallons of gas cost each week during the first six months of the Iran and Ukraine conflicts, compared with prices just before each war began.

You can see the cumulative price rise for gasoline is substantially higher.

Yes, but: The U.S. has been relatively insulated from the Iran war's energy shock compared to many other countries.

For many countries it has been a double-whammy, hitting both petroleum prices and sending natural gas prices much higher.
The Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air estimates that fossil fuel importing countries paid an additional $330 billion for seaborne shipments of oil, petroleum products and liquefied natural gas during the war's first six months.

State of play: The natural gas market is less globally integrated than oil, and massive U.S. supplies prevented domestic price spikes.

The U.S. is also the world's biggest oil producer. That helps here and abroad, but when oil prices climb, that inevitably boosts retail gasoline costs as refiners pay more per barrel.

Cumulative extra cost of buying 100 gallons of diesel each week at the weekly price instead of paying the price at the beginning of the conflict. Over the first 26 weeks, the Iran-war line ends at about $3,662 and the Ukraine-invasion line at about $3,233. — Each week compares the cost of 100 gallons at that week's price with the cost of 100 gallons at the price at the beginning of the conflict. Week 0 = $0 extra; if that week's price is lower, the running total goes down. Data: U.S. Energy Information Administration; Chart: Andrew Pantazi/Axios

This shows the additional costs for diesel since the war began.

Diesel costs ripple through the economy and consumer prices, raising the cost of moving goods, construction and more.

Context: The ongoing Russia-Ukraine war is also contributing to today's fuel prices.

Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries have led to curtailed Russian diesel exports.
That has further tightened a market already upended by the loss of transit through the Strait of Hormuz and damage to Middle Eastern refineries.

What we're watching: The average U.S. gasoline price is $4.08 on Monday morning, per AAA.

Prices will likely be near or above $4 per gallon on Labor Day weekend — a heavy travel stretch and the time when midterm election season intensifies.

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A costly crisis for American drivers

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